Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:27:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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ED 0xed6a…4a6d crypto 847 markets active 0h ago coverage 82d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$48 (-2%) realized −$49 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate54%458W / 388L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day21.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$28
7 days−$1
14 days−$55
30 days−$56
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$91
sports 0% −$1
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 388 +3.1% -6.7% 52% 48% -9.6%
≤30d 614 +1.1% -8.6% 50% 46% -12.1%
≤90d 846 -1.6% -10.9% 54% 45% -13.2%
all 846 -1.6% -10.9% 54% 45% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.9% 45% -13.2%
10% ← realistic here -19.5% 39% -21.5%
15% -27.2% 34% -29.1%
20% -34.4% 30% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$49
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses458 / 388
Open positions1
Markets (closed)846 / 847
History coverage82d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day21.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 846 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Up 60¢ 70¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$1 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$1 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$1 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $2 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $3 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET SELL Down 29¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET SELL Down 22¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET SELL Down 29¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET SELL Up 30¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET SELL Up 29¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.52 · official $2.12 · 2167 history records