Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:28:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
ED 0xed68…3555 crypto 182 markets active 0h ago coverage 589d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$53 (+0%) realized +$53 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate58%105W / 76L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$74per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$34est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$643
7 days+$844
14 days+$669
30 days+$296
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 69% −$125
sports 21% +$423
other 7% −$52
politics 1% +$90
world 0% −$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 +3.3% -6.6% 77% 54% -0.1%
≤30d 144 -2.9% -12.2% 62% 49% -7.4%
≤90d 144 -2.9% -12.2% 62% 49% -7.4%
all 181 -3.3% -12.5% 58% 47% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 47% -7.3%
10% -20.9% 40% -16.1%
15% -28.5% 28% -24.2%
20% -35.5% 21% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$36 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

589d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$53
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses105 / 76
Est. fees paid−$34
Open positions0
Markets (closed)181 / 182
History coverage589d
Avg bet$74
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 181 Trades
no open positions (34 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 17 $81 +$27 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 17 $1,005 +$65 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $301 +$11 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $607 +$114 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 17 $203 +$53 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $203 +$47 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 17 $202 +$26 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 17 $151 −$139 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $203 +$44 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 17 $203 +$39 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $200 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 17 $201 +$11 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $203 +$51 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 17 $203 +$51 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $150 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 17 $101 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $200 +$6 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $401 +$10 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 17 $201 +$11 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $51 +$19 +37%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $202 +$96 +48%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $152 +$78 +52%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 16 $111 +$66 +59%
France vs. Senegal: France 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $202 −$200 -99%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $502 +$164 +33%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $152 −$111 -73%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $345 +$266 +77%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $152 −$122 -80%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $151 +$62 +41%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $152 +$78 +51%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $257 +$134 +52%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $101 −$100 -99%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $203 −$200 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $333 +$228 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 08 $14 −$14 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 08 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 08 $28 −$3 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 08 $14 +$8 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 08 $5 +$9 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 08 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 08 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 08 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 08 $10 +$7 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 08 $11 −$4 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 08 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 08 $13 +$5 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $81 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $1,070 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1,005 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $312 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $301 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $722 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $202 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $202 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $203 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $256 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $203 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $203 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $227 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $202 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Down 6¢ $12 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $151 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $247 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $203 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $241 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $203 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $200 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $200 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $212 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $201 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $254 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $203 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $254 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $102 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $101 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 408 history records