Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:27:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
ED 0xed66…ee6d crypto 144 markets active 0h ago coverage 86d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$35 (+2%) realized +$25 · open +$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate48%66W / 71L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$117now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days+$158
14 days+$158
30 days+$158
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 65% −$137
other 20% +$11
sports 15% +$172
world 1% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +24.4% +12.6% 45% 42% +22.1%
≤30d 33 +24.4% +12.6% 45% 42% +22.1%
≤90d 137 -0.5% -10.0% 48% 47% -7.0%
all 137 -0.5% -10.0% 48% 47% -7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 47% -7.0%
10% -18.6% 46% -15.9%
15% -26.5% 44% -24.0%
20% -33.7% 40% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$9 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$117
Realized+$25
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses66 / 71
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions7
Markets (closed)137 / 144
History coverage86d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 137 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 53¢ 72¢ $30 $41 +$11 (+36%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Yes 51¢ 50¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+15%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-19%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+21%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $6 $4 −$2 (-26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 51 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mexico to score first vs. Korea Republic? Jun 18 $10 $0 -4%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$7 +70%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $15 +$16 +104%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 +$5 +51%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 $0 -3%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $20 +$19 +95%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -97%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $18 −$18 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 $0 -4%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$24 +238%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$17 +324%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$31 +307%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$8 -84%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $10 +$10 +101%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $20 +$17 +86%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -99%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 15 $5 −$1 -10%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 +$46 +226%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $31 +$50 +164%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $20 +$1 +7%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 +$30 +291%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $30 −$30 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $46 +$48 +106%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +42%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 9, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Apr 09 $11 −$11 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 9, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Apr 09 $5 $0 -2%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 9, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Apr 09 $5 +$4 +77%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 9, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Apr 09 $1 +$1 +68%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 9, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Apr 09 $5 −$5 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 9, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Apr 09 $5 −$5 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 9, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Apr 09 $5 −$5 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 9, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Apr 09 $5 −$5 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 8, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Apr 08 $5 +$9 +182%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 8, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Apr 08 $6 −$5 -82%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 2, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Apr 02 $20 −$19 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 2, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Apr 02 $20 −$18 -90%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 2, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Apr 02 $20 +$9 +46%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 2, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Apr 02 $20 +$16 +80%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 2, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Apr 02 $21 −$20 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 2, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Apr 02 $20 +$16 +82%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 2, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Apr 02 $30 −$29 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $5 10m
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $10 17m
Mexico to score first vs. Korea Republic? SELL Yes 55¢ $10 17m
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 21m
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 23m
Mexico to score first vs. Korea Republic? BUY Yes 56¢ $10 2h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 2h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 9h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 9h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $10 9h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? SELL Yes 30¢ $15 21h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 22h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $5 23h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $5 23h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 23h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 23h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 71¢ $10 27h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $10 27h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 27h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $10 27h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 27h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $10 47h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 47h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $8 47h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 66¢ $10 2d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $10 2d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $10 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $116.60 · official $117.17 (match) · 271 history records