Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:47:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
ED 0xed65…b1b2 other 122 markets active 1h ago coverage 594d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$6,548 (-36%) realized −$6,458 · open −$90
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%52W / 65L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$147per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$860now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$219
7 days−$117
14 days+$476
30 days+$476
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$491
politics 41% −$6,240
world 3% +$225
sports 2% +$53
culture 1% +$19
crypto 1% −$150
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-24.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -4.4% -13.5% 54% 54% -14.2%
≤30d 18 +5.8% -4.3% 56% 56% +2.7%
≤90d 18 +5.8% -4.3% 56% 56% +2.7%
all 117 -16.5% -24.5% 44% 44% -44.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.5% 44% -44.4%
10% -31.7% 38% -49.7%
15% -38.3% 32% -54.6%
20% -44.3% 24% -59.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -21% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$77 vs −$161 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

594d coverage
Net worth$860
Realized−$6,458
Unrealized−$90
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses52 / 65
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)117 / 122
History coverage594d
Avg bet$147
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 117 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $500 $415 −$85 (-17%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $250 $247 −$3 (-1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 48¢ 46¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $152 +$107 +70%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $151 +$66 +44%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$53 +52%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $153 −$150 -98%
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz Jun 16 $540 +$143 +26%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $202 +$115 +57%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $201 −$200 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $203 −$200 -99%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $102 +$255 +250%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $101 +$44 +44%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 11 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 11 $152 −$150 -98%
Will the Referendum on the Civilian Service Act be approved in Switzer Jun 09 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? Jun 08 $202 −$200 -99%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $153 +$347 +226%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $304 +$205 +67%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $506 +$341 +67%
Will Oscar Piastri get pole position at the 2025 F1 Abu Dhabi Grand Pr Dec 06 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 Qatar Grand Prix? Dec 06 $20 +$6 +30%
Will George Russell win the Sprint at the 2025 F1 Qatar Grand Prix? Nov 30 $17 +$3 +18%
Will Lando Norris get pole position at the 2025 F1 Brazilian Grand Pri Nov 08 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15? Nov 08 $100 −$100 -100%
Will there be a safety car during the 2025 F1 Brazilian Grand Prix? Nov 08 $125 −$125 -100%
Will the Government shutdown end November 4-7? Nov 08 $100 +$25 +25%
Will Oscar Piastri achieve pole position in Sprint Qualifying at the 2 Nov 07 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Vincent Keymer win the 2025 FIDE World Cup? Nov 07 $104 −$104 -100%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 05 $100 +$13 +13%
Will the next Dutch government be GL/PvdA + VVD + D66? Nov 02 $75 −$4 -6%
Will the federal government be shut down for 30 or more days in 2025? Oct 31 $100 +$45 +45%
Kansas State vs. Kansas Oct 26 $20 +$10 +49%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 F1 Mexican Grand Prix? Oct 25 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 United States Grand Prix? Oct 20 $100 +$52 +52%
French election called by October 31? Oct 19 $90 +$82 +91%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October? Oct 05 $75 +$22 +30%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 Singapore Grand Prix? Oct 05 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Trump say "NATO" during events with Turkish president on Septembe Sep 25 $50 +$12 +24%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix? Sep 25 $97 +$48 +49%
Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 Italian Grand Prix? Sep 06 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Vincent Keymer win the 2025 FIDE Grand Swiss chess tournament? Sep 03 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Spain win the UEFA Women's Euro? Aug 18 $15 +$16 +108%
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 F1 Belgian Grand Prix? Aug 18 $25 +$39 +156%
Will Florian Lipowitz finish in the top five at the Tour de France 202 Aug 18 $50 +$73 +145%
F1 Belgian Grand Prix: Safety Car? Jul 27 $100 −$100 -100%
UEFA Women’s Euro: France vs. Germany (To Advance) Jul 26 $10 +$16 +155%
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 F1 Belgian Sprint Race? Jul 26 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Lands in Las Vegas to Jul 17 $100 +$104 +104%
Will Vincent Keymer win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Lands in Las Vegas to Jul 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15? Jul 16 $25 +$21 +86%
F1 British Grand Prix: Safety Car? Jul 06 $50 −$50 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $152 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $152 13h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 29¢ $153 37h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $151 37h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 37h
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz BUY No 79¢ $35 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $101 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND BUY 49¢ $102 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $201 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $203 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $202 5d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 5d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $102 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 50¢ $102 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $152 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 6d
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz BUY No 78¢ $504 8d
Will the Referendum on the Civilian Service Act be approved in Switzer BUY No 40¢ $102 8d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 61¢ $202 9d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $514 10d
Will Italy win on 2026-06-07? BUY Yes 30¢ $153 10d
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? BUY Yes 59¢ $304 10d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 59¢ $506 11d
Will Oscar Piastri get pole position at the 2025 F1 Abu Dhabi Grand Pr BUY Yes 12¢ $26 193d
Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 Qatar Grand Prix? BUY No 77¢ $20 199d
Will George Russell win the Sprint at the 2025 F1 Qatar Grand Prix? BUY No 85¢ $17 200d
Will Lando Norris get pole position at the 2025 F1 Brazilian Grand Pri BUY No 50¢ $30 221d
Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15? BUY No 69¢ $100 221d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $860.09 · official $860.11 (match) · 259 history records