Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T03:09:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
ED 0xed63…5525 crypto 1275 markets active 1h ago coverage 43d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 42d only
✗ bot/MM pace (53 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$122 (-2%) realized −$122 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate55%702W / 573L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day53.2pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$31
7 days−$31
14 days−$31
30 days−$212
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% −$152
sports 8% −$130
other 2% −$48
weather 1% −$52
finance 0% −$1
tech 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (53 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -24.2% -31.4% 43% 14% -23.8%
≤30d 193 -21.2% -28.7% 22% 20% -28.3%
≤90d 1275 -3.5% -12.7% 55% 40% -14.4%
all 1275 -3.5% -12.7% 55% 40% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover53.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.7% 40% -14.4%
10% ← realistic here -21.1% 30% -22.6%
15% -28.7% 24% -30.1%
20% -35.7% 19% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

43d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$122
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses702 / 573
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1275 / 1275
History coverage43d ⚠
Avg bet$6
Trades / day53.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1275 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 27 $38 −$35 -93%
Miami Marlins vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 27 $41 −$3 -8%
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 26 $30 −$19 -64%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets Jun 26 $20 +$1 +5%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 26 $32 +$27 +85%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $31 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 30? Jun 01 $5 −$5 -100%
CD Leganés vs. CD Mirandés: O/U 3.5 Jun 01 $0 $0 -100%
Córdoba CF vs. SD Huesca: O/U 2.5 Jun 01 $0 $0 -100%
Germany vs. Finland: O/U 3.5 Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Real Racing Club vs. Cádiz CF: O/U 5.5 Jun 01 $0 $0 -100%
Cabo Verde vs. Serbia: Both Teams to Score Jun 01 $0 $0 -100%
Cabo Verde vs. Serbia: O/U 3.5 Jun 01 $0 $0 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 01 $0 $0 -100%
Singapore vs. Mongolia: O/U 2.5 Jun 01 $0 $0 -100%
Spread: Singapore (-2.5) Jun 01 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on May 30? May 31 $9 −$5 -63%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C on May 30? May 31 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C on May 30? May 31 $5 −$5 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C or below on May 30? May 31 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on May 30? May 30 $1 −$1 -90%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on May 30? May 30 $6 −$6 -86%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 30, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET May 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Scotland vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 May 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET May 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10AM ET May 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 10AM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET May 30 $5 +$5 +97%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET May 30 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 9AM ET May 30 $5 +$3 +64%
Solana Up or Down - May 30, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET May 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET May 30 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 8AM ET May 30 $10 −$6 -57%
XRP Up or Down - May 30, 8AM ET May 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8AM ET May 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 30, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET May 30 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET May 30 $5 +$11 +212%
Solana Up or Down - May 30, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET May 30 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET May 30 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on May 30? May 30 $5 −$1 -13%
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on May 30? May 30 $3 −$2 -48%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 30? May 30 $5 +$3 +53%
Solana Up or Down - May 30, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET May 30 $2 −$2 -69%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on May 30? May 30 $4 −$4 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on May 30? May 30 $5 −$3 -51%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays $3 1h
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers SELL Chicago Cubs $3 1h
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Chicago Cubs 40¢ $38 1h
Miami Marlins vs. St. Louis Cardinals SELL Miami Marlins 49¢ $38 1h
Miami Marlins vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY Miami Marlins 51¢ $41 3h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox SELL New York Yankees 18¢ $11 3h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets SELL Philadelphia Phillies 65¢ $21 3h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets BUY Philadelphia Phillies 60¢ $20 4h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY New York Yankees 48¢ $30 4h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 53¢ $32 8h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 77¢ $32 8h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 71¢ $31 8h
Córdoba CF vs. SD Huesca: O/U 2.5 BUY Over $0 26d
CD Leganés vs. CD Mirandés: O/U 3.5 BUY Over $0 26d
Germany vs. Finland: O/U 3.5 BUY Under $0 26d
Germany vs. Finland: O/U 3.5 BUY Under $0 26d
Germany vs. Finland: O/U 3.5 BUY Under $0 26d
Germany vs. Finland: O/U 3.5 BUY Under $1 26d
Real Racing Club vs. Cádiz CF: O/U 5.5 BUY Over $0 26d
Cabo Verde vs. Serbia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over $0 26d
Cabo Verde vs. Serbia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes $0 26d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Jordan $0 26d
Spread: Singapore (-2.5) BUY Mongolia $0 26d
Singapore vs. Mongolia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under $0 26d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C on May 30? BUY No $1 27d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C on May 30? BUY Yes $1 27d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C on May 30? BUY Yes $0 27d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C on May 30? BUY Yes $0 27d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C on May 30? BUY Yes $0 27d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C on May 30? BUY Yes $0 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records