Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T17:19:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

ED
0xed62…c51d
weather · 387 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$310 -13%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$371 · open −$40
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$67
Realized−$371
Unrealized−$40
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses97 / 224
Open positions65
Markets (closed)321 / 387
History coverage11d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day124.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 65 History 321 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$104
7 days−$409
14 days−$371
30 days−$371
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 14? No 10¢ 16¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+53%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 15? Yes 45¢ 44¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 14? Yes 1¢ 28¢ $0 $4 +$4 (+3430%)
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 15? No 63¢ 73¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+16%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? No 67¢ 64¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 15? No 70¢ 62¢ $4 $3 −$0 (-12%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 14? Yes 70¢ 62¢ $4 $3 −$0 (-11%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 15? No 67¢ 60¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-10%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 10°C on June 14? Yes 50¢ 56¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+13%)
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 14? No 56¢ 54¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 14? Yes 42¢ 50¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+18%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on June 15? Yes 36¢ 39¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 15? Yes 38¢ 40¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June 14? Yes 17¢ 34¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+94%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 14? Yes 34¢ 68¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+100%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 14? Yes 40¢ 34¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-15%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on June 14? Yes 15¢ 15¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 14? Yes 4¢ 19¢ $0 $2 +$1 (+370%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on June 14? Yes 17¢ 11¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-34%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 14? Yes 34¢ 9¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-74%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 14? Yes 12¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-38%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on June 14? No 64¢ 18¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-73%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 15? Yes 21¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-26%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 14? No 43¢ 18¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-59%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $4 +$3 +56%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 +$2 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 14? Jun 14 $11 +$4 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 +$2 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $4 +$1 +35%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 9°C on June 10? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 10? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 92-93°F on June 10? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on June 10? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 14 $6 −$3 -62%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 13? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 10? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 +$3 +306%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 14? Jun 14 $0 $0 +85%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 +$1 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -47%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 +$16 +1428%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 15? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -74%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 13? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on June 9? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C or higher on June 12? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on June 12? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -80%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on June 10? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 11? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 10? Jun 14 $4 +$2 +59%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 11? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 10? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 86°F or higher on June 13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 10? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on June 13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 12? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -68%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on June 12? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 12? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 11? Jun 14 $22 +$39 +176%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 11? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 +$2 +69%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $4 +$1 +38%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 +$2 +55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% −$411
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 14? SELL Yes 50¢ $2 0m
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 14? BUY No 56¢ $3 2m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 14? SELL No 90¢ $0 3m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 15? BUY Yes 45¢ $4 8m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 14? SELL No 90¢ $0 9m
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on June 14? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 9m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 14? SELL No 90¢ $3 9m
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 14? BUY Yes 40¢ $2 10m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju SELL Yes 82¢ $0 14m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 14? SELL Yes 83¢ $0 19m
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 14? SELL Yes 10¢ $3 22m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 14? SELL No 22¢ $0 23m
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? BUY No 6¢ $2 26m
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 14? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 28m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 14? SELL Yes 97¢ $2 28m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 14? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 30m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 14? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 30m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 14? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 30m
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 14? SELL Yes 80¢ $0 36m
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 14? BUY No 10¢ $1 36m
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 14? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 36m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 14? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 37m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 14? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 39m
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 14? SELL No 19¢ $1 39m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 14? SELL Yes 81¢ $0 41m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 41m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 14? SELL Yes 81¢ $1 41m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 14? SELL No 99¢ $5 42m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 14? SELL Yes 81¢ $1 42m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 14? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 45m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 232 -7.4% -16.2% 29% 27% -29.6%
≤30d 321 -4.8% -13.8% 30% 28% -25.2%
≤90d 321 -4.8% -13.8% 30% 28% -25.2%
all 321 -4.8% -13.8% 30% 28% -25.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover124.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.8% 28% -25.2%
10% ← realistic here -22.1% 25% -32.3%
15% -29.6% 23% -38.9%
20% -36.5% 18% -44.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $67.29 · official $66.69 (match) · 1670 history records