Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:34:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
ED 0xed61…9aa3 sports 296 markets active 11h ago coverage 86d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 86d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$410,964 (+299%) realized +$410,964 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate82%240W / 54L
Whale WR85%big bets
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$465per market
Trades / day38.8pace
Fees−$1,031est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 86d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% +$10,969
other 39% +$14,831
crypto 1% +$306
world 1% −$20
politics 0% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)+10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 58 +16.8% +5.6% 86% 48% +6.2%
≤30d 80 +12.1% +1.4% 78% 36% +1.9%
≤90d 294 +21.7% +10.1% 82% 47% +7.6%
all 294 +21.7% +10.1% 82% 47% +7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover38.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +10.1% 47% +7.6%
10% ← realistic here -0.5% 25% -2.7%
15% -10.1% 17% -12.1%
20% -18.9% 12% -20.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +22% · $-wt +19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 85% (≥$620) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +23% → late +20% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
7.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$111 vs −$11 · ×10.44 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×58.28 per $1 lost it wins $58.28
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$410,964
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses240 / 54
Whale WR (big bets)85%
Est. fees paid−$1,031
Open positions0
Markets (closed)294 / 296
History coverage86d ⚠
Avg bet$465
Trades / day38.8
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 294 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 15 $681 +$144 +21%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $381 +$5 +1%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 15 $689 +$136 +20%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 15 $568 +$67 +12%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $5 $0 +10%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $680 +$145 +21%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 2 Egypt? Jun 15 $10 +$1 +10%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 15 $702 +$33 +5%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $968 +$163 +17%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 Egypt? Jun 15 $711 +$114 +16%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt? Jun 15 $733 +$92 +12%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $2,851 +$1,399 +49%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 2 Tunisia? Jun 15 $751 +$74 +10%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $339 +$486 +143%
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) Jun 15 $713 +$240 +34%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 2 Tunisia? Jun 15 $703 +$122 +17%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $581 +$243 +42%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $453 +$97 +22%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $452 +$103 +23%
Sweden leading at halftime? Jun 15 $474 +$70 +15%
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $482 +$67 +14%
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $488 +$61 +13%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $526 +$68 +13%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 15 $406 +$144 +36%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 15 $0 $0 +10%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $500 +$50 +10%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $27 +$3 +10%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $304 +$147 +48%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $279 +$34 +12%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $76 +$14 +18%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $196 +$20 +10%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $480 +$52 +11%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $208 +$21 +10%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 13 $445 −$14 -3%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $500 $0 -0%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $395 +$155 +39%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $56 +$13 +24%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 12 $250 +$18 +7%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $429 +$59 +14%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $2,980 +$20 +1%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $990 +$10 +1%
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) Jun 11 $401 +$470 +117%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $349 +$201 +57%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 11 $67 $0 +0%
Málaga CF vs. UD Las Palmas: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $49 $0 +1%
Will Málaga CF vs. UD Las Palmas end in a draw? Jun 10 $133 $0 -0%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $24 $0 -0%
Málaga CF vs. UD Las Palmas: O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $50 $0 +0%
Will UD Las Palmas win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $49 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: B8 Academy vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Eur Jun 10 $1,022 −$22 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 0 Uruguay? SELL No 99¢ $22 10h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 0 Uruguay? SELL No 99¢ $250 10h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 0 Uruguay? SELL No 99¢ $4 10h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 0 Uruguay? SELL No 99¢ $40 10h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 0 Uruguay? SELL No 99¢ $31 10h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 0 Uruguay? SELL No 99¢ $478 10h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 0 Uruguay? BUY No 75¢ $354 10h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 0 Uruguay? BUY No 90¢ $327 10h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) SELL Saudi Arabia 93¢ $386 11h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 0 Uruguay? SELL No 99¢ $825 11h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 1 Uruguay? SELL No 99¢ $635 11h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? SELL No 99¢ $5 11h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 92¢ $8 11h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 1 Uruguay? BUY No 90¢ $35 11h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 91¢ $340 11h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 1 Uruguay? BUY No 88¢ $378 11h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 0 Uruguay? BUY No 82¢ $689 11h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 1 Uruguay? BUY No 90¢ $91 11h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? BUY No 90¢ $5 11h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 92¢ $5 11h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 92¢ $12 11h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 92¢ $5 11h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 92¢ $12 11h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 1 Uruguay? BUY No 90¢ $64 11h
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 1 Egypt? SELL No 99¢ $825 14h
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 2 Egypt? SELL No 99¢ $11 14h
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 1 Egypt? BUY No 81¢ $680 14h
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 2 Egypt? BUY No 90¢ $10 14h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) SELL Egypt 95¢ $113 15h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) SELL Egypt 95¢ $50 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records