Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:45:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
ED 0xed60…c574 other 82 markets active 2h ago coverage 475d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate41%33W / 47L
Whale WR17%big bets
Drawdown96%max
Avg bet$147per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$183now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$16
14 days−$18
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% +$8
other 36% $0
politics 9% −$1
sports 8% +$1
finance 3% −$8
crypto 1% +$7
economics 0% $0
tech 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -2.1% -11.5% 25% 0% -10.3%
≤30d 25 -5.1% -14.2% 32% 4% -9.1%
≤90d 36 -3.9% -13.1% 31% 3% -9.4%
all 80 -3.0% -12.2% 41% 5% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 5% -9.4%
10% -20.6% 2% -18.0%
15% -28.3% 1% -26.0%
20% -35.3% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 60% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 17% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

475d coverage
Net worth$183
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses33 / 47
Whale WR (big bets)17%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)80 / 82
History coverage475d
Avg bet$147
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 80 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 91¢ 91¢ $183 $183 +$0 (+0%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 45¢ 54¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $71 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $183 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $374 +$7 +2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $544 −$3 -1%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 14 $4 $0 -8%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $363 +$2 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $178 −$15 -9%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $202 −$5 -2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 08 $207 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $428 −$1 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $11 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $445 +$3 +1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $197 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $500 −$4 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $299 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 03 $210 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 31 $286 +$3 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 29 $382 −$11 -3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $152 +$4 +3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 25 $235 +$36 +16%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $199 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 24 $7 −$1 -18%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 24 $6 $0 +7%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $159 −$2 -1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 21 $4 −$1 -18%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $315 $0 +0%
Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most Apr 25 $29 −$2 -6%
Will Elon Musk post 1120-1159 tweets in April 2026? Apr 24 $100 +$3 +3%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 23 $207 −$8 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in April 2026? Apr 21 $108 −$1 -1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $898 $0 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $898 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 15 $988 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 14 $897 +$1 +0%
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 14 $80 −$4 -6%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $902 −$1 -0%
Will Bobby Kotick buy TikTok? Dec 14 $1 $0 -9%
Will Botafogo RJ win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 14 $2 $0 +4%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2025 National League Championshi Jun 25 $22 $0 +1%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2025 World Series? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -90%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by over 12%? Jun 03 $2 $0 +1%
Will Mercedes be the 2025 Constructors Champion? May 15 $22 $0 -2%
Will AOC win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City? May 14 $23 $0 -0%
Will Trump announce Judy Shelton as next Fed Chair? May 13 $23 $0 +0%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by next Tuesday? May 13 $23 $0 +1%
Will Ferrari be the 2025 Constructors Champion? May 11 $23 $0 -0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $100-150b in federal spending in 2025? May 11 $23 $0 +0%
Will Nicușor Dan win by 6–12%? May 11 $14 +$2 +16%
Will Arsenal finish in the top 4 of the EPL? May 10 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? May 10 $20 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $183 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $71 6h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $71 11h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $183 13h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $183 13h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $102 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $35 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $33 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $12 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $177 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $171 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $6 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $177 2d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $4 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $177 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $180 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $116 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $47 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $165 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 32¢ $10 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 32¢ $76 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 32¢ $77 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 35¢ $178 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $177 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $3 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $17 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $197 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $183.00 · official $182.91 (match) · 344 history records