Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:54:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
ED 0xed5d…2668 other 658 markets active 1h ago coverage 123d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$5,505 (-10%) realized −$5,717 · open +$212
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate32%209W / 446L
Whale WR37%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$87per market
Trades / day15.2pace
Fees−$80est.
Kalshi-fit18%portable
Net worth$1,069now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$384
7 days−$563
14 days−$694
30 days−$1,875
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 88% −$4,622
sports 11% −$956
world 0% −$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -56.3% -60.5% 13% 7% -38.2%
≤30d 65 -48.1% -53.0% 18% 15% -58.0%
≤90d 509 -26.8% -33.7% 23% 22% -46.9%
all 655 -5.5% -14.5% 32% 29% -18.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.5% 29% -18.8%
10% -22.7% 28% -26.5%
15% -30.2% 27% -33.6%
20% -37.0% 25% -40.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -42% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 37% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$107 vs −$63 · ×1.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

123d coverage
Net worth$1,069
Realized−$5,717
Unrealized+$212
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses209 / 446
Whale WR (big bets)37%
Est. fees paid−$80
Open positions2
Markets (closed)655 / 658
History coverage123d
Avg bet$87
Trades / day15.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit18%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 655 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $753 $879 +$125 (+17%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 54¢ 100¢ $103 $190 +$87 (+85%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 208 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $496 −$141 -28%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $254 −$250 -98%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $51 −$21 -41%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $21 −$7 -33%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$1 -10%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $102 +$107 +105%
Spread: Senegal (-2.5) Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $11 −$11 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $49 −$48 -99%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $555 +$1 +0%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $13 −$8 -62%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $36 −$35 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $30 −$16 -52%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 14 $5 $0 -5%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $13 −$13 -97%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 +$23 +442%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $13 −$13 -97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Thailand win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $50 −$49 -98%
Will Northern Ireland win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Slovenia win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Ukraine win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Chile win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $36 −$35 -97%
Will Bermuda win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $5 −$5 -97%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Cayman Islands win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $5 −$5 -97%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $41 +$28 +70%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $23 −$23 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $10 +$8 +76%
Will Jordan win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Yunnan Yukun FC win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $12 −$12 -97%
Will Dalian Yingbo FC win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $17 +$16 +94%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) May 30 $112 −$85 -76%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $794 −$779 -98%
Will Shandong Taishan FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $10 −$10 -97%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 53¢ $40 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $33 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 52¢ $41 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $308 2h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $355 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $24 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 25¢ $51 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 47¢ $102 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 3h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals SELL Yes 32¢ $30 4h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 4h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 51¢ $20 4h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 56¢ $10 4h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 54¢ $10 4h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 54¢ $10 5h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 7¢ $9 12h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 17¢ $9 12h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? AND BUY 2¢ $10 12h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 56¢ $10 12h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 12h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 12h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 12h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 19h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 19h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 19h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 25h
Spread: Senegal (-2.5) BUY Senegal 1¢ $5 26h
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) BUY Senegal 5¢ $5 26h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 28h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,068.75 · official $1,034.44 · 2058 history records