Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:38:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
ED 0xed5b…8e60 sports 1008 markets active 0h ago coverage 41d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 41d only
✗ bot/MM pace (61 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,180 (-22%) realized −$1,141 · open −$39
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate44%432W / 558L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day61.2pace
Fees−$79est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$147now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$7
14 days−$9
30 days−$102
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% −$331
other 17% +$138
world 1% −$30
politics 0% +$2
crypto 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (61 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -44.2% -49.5% 33% 33% -62.4%
≤30d 223 -8.6% -17.3% 39% 39% -21.3%
≤90d 990 -5.2% -14.3% 44% 42% -12.7%
all 990 -5.2% -14.3% 44% 42% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover61.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.3% 42% -12.7%
10% ← realistic here -22.5% 41% -21.0%
15% -30.0% 39% -28.7%
20% -36.8% 33% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$4 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

41d coverage
Net worth$147
Realized−$1,141
Unrealized−$39
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses432 / 558
Est. fees paid−$79
Open positions107
Markets (closed)990 / 1008
History coverage41d ⚠
Avg bet$5
Trades / day61.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 107 History 990 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 18¢ 88¢ $2 $10 +$8 (+401%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 3¢ 5¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+56%)
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 1 Winner GenOne 40¢ 100¢ $3 $7 +$4 (+150%)
Will Matt Claman advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election? Yes 19¢ 34¢ $4 $7 +$3 (+79%)
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2026? Yes 18¢ 10¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-42%)
Will the Democrats win the Maine governor race in 2026? No 10¢ 11¢ $5 $6 +$0 (+10%)
France vs. Senegal: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Under 44¢ 72¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+64%)
Will STRC market cap hit $12B by June 30? No 21¢ 92¢ $1 $4 +$3 (+333%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-7%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 50¢ 80¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+62%)
Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day? Yes 6¢ 19¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+210%)
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Over 47¢ 62¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+30%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Yes 22¢ 10¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-57%)
Spread: France (-1.5) Senegal 64¢ 66¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 32¢ 60¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+87%)
Will the Democrats win the South Dakota governor race in 2026? Yes 6¢ 11¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+77%)
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Under 44¢ 78¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+76%)
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.75% or higher before 2027? Yes 3¢ 5¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+71%)
Will the Republicans win the Tennessee governor race in 2026? No 7¢ 12¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+69%)
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Under 46¢ 38¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-17%)
Don Lemon sentenced to prison? Yes 11¢ 18¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+60%)
Spread: France (-1.5) France 22¢ 34¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+57%)
Will the Democratic Party win the NY-18 House seat? No 7¢ 11¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+55%)
Will the Democrats win the South Carolina governor race in 2026? Yes 6¢ 9¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+52%)
Will Ciro Gomes win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election? Yes 50¢ 73¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+46%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $3 +$2 +67%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? Jun 02 $1 $0 -37%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? Jun 01 $2 −$2 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $9 −$7 -78%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $2 −$2 -82%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. May 30 $1 +$1 +105%
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Falcons Force (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 2 May 29 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs MOUZ (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Pla May 23 $12 −$12 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox May 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs ASTRAL (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Series # May 22 $12 −$12 -100%
Counter-Strike: Alliance vs Walczaki (BO3) - Conquest of Prague Finals May 22 $18 −$18 -100%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs ASTRAL - Map 1 Winner May 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Hamburg European Open: Alex de Minaur vs Tommy Paul May 22 $2 −$2 -76%
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Polina Kudermetova vs Xiyu Wang May 22 $3 +$2 +61%
Geneva Open: Learner Tien vs Alexander Bublik May 22 $3 +$4 +122%
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Katarina Zavatska vs Lucia Bronzetti May 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Borna Gojo vs Jurij Rodionov May 22 $2 +$2 +93%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Hugo Dell May 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 22 $12 −$12 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy (BO3) - CS Asia Championships G May 22 $18 −$18 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner May 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) May 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 214.5 May 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-14.5) May 22 $4 +$2 +57%
Spread: Knicks (-5.5) May 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 3.5 May 22 $6 +$5 +79%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Colorado Rockies vs. May 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Yawara Esports vs BESTIA Academy (BO3) - CCT South Ame May 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 May 22 $1 +$1 +83%
Will Academia Puerto Cabello win on 2026-05-21? May 22 $2 +$2 +76%
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals May 22 $1 −$1 -100%
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 5.5 May 22 $3 −$3 -100%
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 4.5 May 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Geneva Open: Arthur Rinderknech vs Alexander Bublik May 21 $3 +$2 +55%
Will FC København win on 2026-05-21? May 21 $1 +$1 +73%
Counter-Strike: Eternal Fire vs ASTRAL (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe May 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Hamburg European Open: Luciano Darderi vs Alex de Minaur May 21 $4 $0 +12%
Counter-Strike: Rune Eaters vs Bushido Wildcats (BO3) - CCT Europe Clo May 21 $18 −$18 -100%
GP SAR La Princesse Lalla Meryem: Jil Teichmann vs Yasmine Kabbaj May 21 $3 +$1 +48%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 4.5 May 21 $3 +$3 +97%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5 May 21 $1 +$1 +134%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Chennai Super Kings May 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - CS Asia Championship May 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Galorys vs ex-KRÜ Esports (BO3) - CCT South America Se May 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Geneva Open: Alex Michelsen vs Learner Tien May 21 $3 +$1 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Senegal: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 43¢ $1 0m
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Senegal 67¢ $1 7m
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 66¢ $1 7m
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 7m
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 7m
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 8m
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Senegal 61¢ $1 8m
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 2¢ $1 8m
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 22¢ $1 13m
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 46¢ $1 14m
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 15m
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 37¢ $1 15m
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 45¢ $1 15m
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 48¢ $1 16m
France vs. Senegal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 27¢ $1 21m
Fortaleza EC vs. América FC: Both Teams to Score BUY No 54¢ $1 47m
France vs. Senegal: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 58¢ $1 52m
France vs. Senegal: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 36¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: AaB Bulls vs WAZABI (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Division 1 BUY WAZABI 46¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 1 Winner BUY KOLESIE 15¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 1 Winner BUY KOLESIE 27¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 1 Winner BUY GenOne 40¢ $3 1h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Kansas City Royals 44¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 59¢ $3 3h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 44¢ $1 4h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY 100 Thieves 44¢ $3 4h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 12¢ $3 5h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 19¢ $3 5h
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 16¢ $0 8d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $147.02 · official $146.78 (match) · 3500 history records