Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:49:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
ED 0xed5a…656c sports 38 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,356 (+17%) realized +$1,380 · open −$24
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate63%22W / 13L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown94%max
Avg bet$214per market
Trades / day13.1pace
Fees−$106est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$276now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$1,537
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-1.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 +9.3% -1.2% 63% 60% +8.5%
≤30d 35 +9.3% -1.2% 63% 60% +8.5%
≤90d 35 +9.3% -1.2% 63% 60% +8.5%
all 35 +9.3% -1.2% 63% 60% +8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.2% 60% +8.5%
10% -10.6% 57% -1.8%
15% -19.2% 57% -11.3%
20% -27.2% 43% -20.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +56% → late -35% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$179 vs −$183 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.66 per $1 lost it wins $1.66
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$276
Realized+$1,380
Unrealized−$24
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses22 / 13
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$106
Open positions3
Markets (closed)35 / 38
History coverage4d
Avg bet$214
Trades / day13.1
Drawdown94%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winner KT Rolster Challengers 53¢ 100¢ $100 $189 +$89 (+89%)
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Closed Qualifier Playoffs Vici Gaming 47¢ 41¢ $100 $87 −$13 (-13%)
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Vici Gaming 65¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 1 Winne Jun 18 $102 +$43 +42%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 18 $102 +$79 +78%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $307 +$185 +60%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $102 +$67 +66%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $103 +$122 +118%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo Jun 17 $103 −$100 -97%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $999 +$1,117 +112%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $492 −$492 -100%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $511 −$511 -100%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $206 −$206 -100%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 17 $103 −$103 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 17 $205 −$205 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $247 −$247 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 17 $102 −$102 -100%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta Jun 17 $103 −$103 -100%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $204 −$204 -100%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $102 −$8 -8%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $102 −$3 -3%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $102 $0 +0%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $102 +$79 +78%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $102 +$67 +66%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $205 +$138 +68%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $204 +$99 +48%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $102 +$43 +42%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $102 +$52 +51%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $102 +$54 +53%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $102 +$52 +51%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $280 +$256 +91%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $143 +$138 +97%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs G2 Ares (BO3) - European Pro League Series Jun 15 $102 +$41 +40%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $514 +$677 +132%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $512 +$432 +84%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $650 +$121 +19%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $204 +$82 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 1 Winne SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 100¢ $145 28m
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 100¢ $182 28m
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL Vici Gaming 100¢ $492 28m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne BUY KT Rolster Challengers 53¢ $102 30m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 1 Winne BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 69¢ $102 1h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 61¢ $307 1h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Vici Gaming 47¢ $103 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 55¢ $102 2h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 65¢ $102 2h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $102 13h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 45¢ $103 14h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY TDK 46¢ $103 27h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY K27 52¢ $102 28h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 46¢ $999 32h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 47¢ $492 42h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL Senegal 59¢ $94 43h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 63¢ $99 43h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 69¢ $102 43h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 61¢ $511 43h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY XLG Gaming 40¢ $206 44h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 63¢ $102 2d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 67¢ $102 2d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Senegal 62¢ $102 2d
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Gentle Mates 49¢ $103 2d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 59¢ $102 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 58¢ $205 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 66¢ $204 2d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 58¢ $205 2d
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 55¢ $102 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 65¢ $102 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $276.13 · official $276.13 (match) · 71 history records