Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T02:40:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
ED 0xed54…4967 weather 715 markets active 1h ago coverage 77d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 76d only
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$4,109 (+13%) realized +$4,099 · open +$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate57%406W / 305L
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day43.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$57now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$30
7 days−$5
14 days+$475
30 days+$1,134
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$2,860
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+4.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 79 -16.7% -24.6% 37% 29% -9.7%
≤30d 279 +7.9% -2.4% 47% 37% +2.4%
≤90d 711 +15.1% +4.1% 57% 38% -1.3%
all 711 +15.1% +4.1% 57% 38% -1.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +4.1% 38% -1.3%
10% ← realistic here -5.8% 28% -10.8%
15% -14.9% 22% -19.4%
20% -23.3% 18% -27.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late +15% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$14 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.65 per $1 lost it wins $1.65
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

77d coverage
Net worth$57
Realized+$4,099
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses406 / 305
Open positions4
Markets (closed)711 / 715
History coverage77d ⚠
Avg bet$43
Trades / day43.2
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 711 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 29? No 59¢ 70¢ $26 $31 +$5 (+19%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 29? Yes 6¢ 10¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+55%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on June 29? No 100¢ 100¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 29? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 29? Jun 29 $98 −$1 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 37°C on June 28? Jun 28 $39 +$5 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 28? Jun 28 $9 +$5 +56%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 28? Jun 28 $124 +$44 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 40°C on June 28? Jun 28 $10 −$9 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on June 28? Jun 28 $12 +$46 +379%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 39°C on June 28? Jun 28 $12 −$11 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 28? Jun 28 $45 −$38 -84%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 28? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 27? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 27? Jun 28 $36 −$36 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 27? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 27? Jun 28 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 37°C on June 27? Jun 28 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 27? Jun 27 $66 +$34 +53%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on June 27? Jun 27 $34 +$16 +48%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 27? Jun 27 $36 −$36 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 27? Jun 27 $15 −$13 -87%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 27? Jun 27 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 27? Jun 27 $6 −$5 -80%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 26? Jun 27 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 26? Jun 27 $76 −$76 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on June 26? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 26? Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 26? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 26? Jun 26 $42 −$42 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 26? Jun 26 $46 −$46 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 26? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 26? Jun 26 $6 −$6 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 26? Jun 26 $13 +$44 +340%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 26? Jun 26 $8 −$3 -30%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 26? Jun 26 $22 +$78 +362%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 26? Jun 26 $31 −$30 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 25? Jun 25 $96 +$18 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on June 26? Jun 25 $10 −$7 -68%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 25? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 25? Jun 25 $34 −$34 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 25? Jun 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C or higher on June 25? Jun 25 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 25? Jun 25 $301 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 25? Jun 25 $9 −$4 -44%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 25? Jun 25 $13 +$35 +256%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 25? Jun 25 $16 −$8 -51%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 24? Jun 24 $22 +$3 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 24? Jun 24 $62 +$59 +94%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 24? Jun 24 $10 −$8 -82%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 24? Jun 24 $37 −$14 -38%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 24? Jun 24 $13 −$12 -90%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on June 24? Jun 24 $28 +$18 +65%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 24? Jun 24 $23 −$9 -40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 29? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 35m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 29? BUY No 59¢ $26 38m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on June 29? BUY No 100¢ $9 40m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 29? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 29? SELL Yes 44¢ $13 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 29? SELL Yes 45¢ $11 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 29? SELL Yes 45¢ $11 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 29? SELL Yes 48¢ $47 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 29? SELL Yes 14¢ $29 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 29? SELL Yes 49¢ $15 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 29? BUY Yes 45¢ $98 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 29? BUY Yes 14¢ $33 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 40°C on June 28? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 11h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 37°C on June 28? BUY No 89¢ $39 13h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 28? BUY No 63¢ $9 13h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 40°C on June 28? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 15h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 40°C on June 28? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 15h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 40°C on June 28? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 15h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 39°C on June 28? BUY Yes 45¢ $12 15h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 40°C on June 28? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 16h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 40°C on June 28? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 16h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 40°C on June 28? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 16h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 40°C on June 28? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 19h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 28? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 20h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 28? SELL Yes 3¢ $6 20h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 28? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 20h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 28? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 20h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 28? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 21h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 28? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 21h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 28? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.88 · official $56.88 (match) · 3500 history records