Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:20:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
ED 0xed53…861a crypto 52 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2 (+2%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate56%29W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day17.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-17.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 -8.9% -17.6% 56% 56% -10.4%
≤30d 52 -8.9% -17.6% 56% 56% -10.4%
≤90d 52 -8.9% -17.6% 56% 56% -10.4%
all 52 -8.9% -17.6% 56% 56% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.6% 56% -10.4%
10% -25.5% 48% -19.0%
15% -32.7% 44% -26.8%
20% -39.3% 35% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses29 / 23
Open positions0
Markets (closed)52 / 52
History coverage3d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day17.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 52 Trades
no open positions (21 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$2 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$2 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$2 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$2 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET SELL Up 14¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $2 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $2 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $2 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $2 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $2 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $2 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $2 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 84 history records