Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T00:37:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

ED
0xed52…7f9f
world · 69 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$0 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$0 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses26 / 42
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)68 / 69
History coverage480d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%
Chart Positions 1 History 68 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$5
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump visit China by April 30? No 97¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+3%)
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 16¢ 19¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $15 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $38 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $26 $0 +1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $26 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $26 $0 +1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $50 −$1 -1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $53 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $8 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $28 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 03 $13 −$2 -16%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $54 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $75 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 31 $27 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $33 −$3 -9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 30 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 29 $65 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 28 $16 −$1 -8%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 23 $10 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 18 $31 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 18 $32 −$1 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 17 $1 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 16 $65 $0 -0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 16 $44 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 15 $1 $0 +2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 14 $64 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $33 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $70 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $65 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $69 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $75 $0 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 22 $36 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $32 $0 +0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $32 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 13 $10 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 11 $32 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 10 $41 $0 -0%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 09 $69 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Apr 08 $32 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 08 $68 $0 +0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 08 $66 $0 +0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 06 $32 $0 +0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 04 $33 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 03 $36 $0 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Mar 31 $51 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 29 $4 $0 +0%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Mar 29 $31 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Mar 28 $32 $0 +0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 28 $36 $0 +0%
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? Mar 27 $33 −$1 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 35% −$7
politics 26% $0
other 16% $0
sports 12% +$6
economics 6% $0
tech 2% $0
finance 1% $0
crypto 1% +$1
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 20¢ $13 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 20¢ $2 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 20¢ $15 1h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 90¢ $23 5h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 90¢ $4 5h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 91¢ $26 9h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 95¢ $11 10h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $11 12h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $27 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $26 2d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $26 3d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $26 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL No 98¢ $6 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL No 98¢ $20 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? BUY No 96¢ $26 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 39¢ $17 7d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 39¢ $3 7d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 39¢ $14 7d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $28 7d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $28 7d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 45¢ $2 7d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $2 7d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $8 8d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $6 8d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 8d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $28 8d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $28 8d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $25 8d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $25 8d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 28¢ $11 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.3% -9.2% 40% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 24 -1.3% -10.7% 25% 0% -10.4%
≤90d 52 -0.7% -10.2% 25% 0% -9.9%
all 68 +3.0% -6.8% 38% 6% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.8% 6% -9.5%
10% -15.7% 3% -18.2%
15% -23.9% 3% -26.1%
20% -31.3% 3% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.66 · official $0.00 (match) · 258 history records