Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T01:59:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
ED 0xed4e…916f sports 345 markets active 2h ago coverage 70d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,492 (-4%) realized −$1,490 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate44%151W / 191L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$98per market
Trades / day8.2pace
Fees−$484est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$58now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$19
7 days+$246
14 days−$120
30 days−$168
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% −$1,764
other 8% −$86
crypto 2% −$107
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +0.8% -8.8% 40% 40% -1.7%
≤30d 104 -1.7% -11.1% 44% 44% -10.0%
≤90d 342 -4.5% -13.6% 44% 43% -14.5%
all 342 -4.5% -13.6% 44% 43% -14.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 43% -14.5%
10% -21.9% 42% -22.7%
15% -29.4% 38% -30.2%
20% -36.3% 35% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$73 vs −$68 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$58
Realized−$1,490
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses151 / 191
Est. fees paid−$484
Open positions1
Markets (closed)342 / 345
History coverage70d
Avg bet$98
Trades / day8.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 342 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Over 49¢ 48¢ $60 $58 −$2 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 78 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $127 −$127 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $77 +$64 +83%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 21 $76 −$20 -26%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $146 +$70 +48%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $49 +$51 +105%
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. Hanwha Eagles Jun 21 $77 −$76 -99%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $41 −$9 -21%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 20 $60 −$59 -99%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 20 $51 +$16 +32%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $33 +$8 +23%
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. Kiwoom Heroes Jun 20 $115 +$100 +87%
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. Hanwha Eagles Jun 20 $47 −$46 -98%
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. LG Twins Jun 20 $17 $0 -1%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 +$47 +93%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $426 +$312 +73%
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. Kiwoom Heroes Jun 19 $196 +$230 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 19 $321 −$3 -1%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $29 −$28 -98%
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. SSG Landers Jun 18 $66 −$8 -12%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $164 −$162 -99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $62 −$61 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $60 −$59 -99%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $47 −$46 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $154 −$77 -50%
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Doosan Bears Jun 17 $173 +$127 +73%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $56 −$55 -99%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $23 −$23 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $10 +$59 +572%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $65 −$64 -99%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $111 +$85 +77%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $83 −$82 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $109 −$41 -38%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $54 +$46 +86%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $61 +$145 +237%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $41 +$77 +188%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) Jun 14 $125 −$6 -5%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $100 −$99 -98%
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. Hanwha Eagles Jun 11 $240 −$237 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $433 −$124 -29%
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. Hanwha Eagles Jun 10 $46 −$45 -98%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $274 −$120 -44%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $101 −$100 -99%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $47 −$40 -84%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $132 −$130 -99%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $155 +$96 +62%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 07 $81 +$26 +32%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $219 +$181 +83%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Lotte Giants Jun 07 $63 −$56 -89%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1? Jun 07 $64 −$63 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Jun 07 $126 −$114 -91%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $61 1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 54¢ $77 10h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY No 63¢ $127 11h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs SELL T1 Academy 55¢ $56 15h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY T1 Academy 73¢ $76 15h
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. Hanwha Eagles BUY Hanwha Eagles 59¢ $27 20h
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. Hanwha Eagles BUY Hanwha Eagles 59¢ $17 20h
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. Hanwha Eagles BUY Hanwha Eagles 59¢ $32 20h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $146 22h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $49 22h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL 27¢ $32 22h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY 33¢ $41 22h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Sweden 59¢ $60 32h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) SELL Netherlands 71¢ $67 32h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 0.5 SELL Under 41¢ $40 32h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 53¢ $51 32h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 0.5 BUY Under 32¢ $33 33h
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. Kiwoom Heroes BUY Lotte Giants 53¢ $81 42h
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. Hanwha Eagles BUY Samsung Lions 44¢ $45 42h
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. Kiwoom Heroes BUY Lotte Giants 52¢ $23 42h
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. Kiwoom Heroes BUY Lotte Giants 52¢ $5 42h
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. LG Twins SELL LG Twins 56¢ $17 42h
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. Hanwha Eagles BUY Samsung Lions 43¢ $2 43h
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. Kiwoom Heroes BUY Lotte Giants 52¢ $5 43h
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. LG Twins BUY LG Twins 55¢ $17 44h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 45h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $426 2d
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. Kiwoom Heroes SELL Lotte Giants 100¢ $426 2d
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. Kiwoom Heroes BUY Lotte Giants 46¢ $42 2d
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. Kiwoom Heroes BUY Lotte Giants 45¢ $12 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58.16 · official $58.16 (match) · 733 history records