Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T03:34:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
ED 0xed4d…a43a other 7 markets active 0h ago coverage 26d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$210 (+136%) realized −$97 · open +$307
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +282% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +246% what you keep after slip
Net edge+246%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%2W / 2L
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$348now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 26d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 73% +$284
sports 24% −$1
crypto 4% +$308
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+246.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +282.5% +246.1% 50% 50% +218.6%
≤30d 4 +282.5% +246.1% 50% 50% +218.6%
≤90d 4 +282.5% +246.1% 50% 50% +218.6%
all 4 +282.5% +246.1% 50% 50% +218.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +246.1% 50% +218.6%
10% +213.0% 50% +188.1%
15% +182.7% 50% +160.3%
20% +155.0% 50% +134.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 77% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +252% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +283% · $-wt +252% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$171 vs −$29 · ×5.92 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.92 per $1 lost it wins $5.92
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$348
Realized−$97
Unrealized+$307
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)4 / 7
History coverage26d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Up 1¢ 50¢ $5 $314 +$308 (+5619%)
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score in First Half Yes 17¢ 16¢ $18 $17 −$1 (-3%)
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Yes 47¢ 46¢ $17 $17 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $30 +$79 +259%
Will MOUZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 21 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 21 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 21 $25 +$263 +1071%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 0¢ $0 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $0 5m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 84¢ $109 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 21¢ $30 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $18 3h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 17¢ $19 3h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $25 19d
Will MOUZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $27 19d
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $31 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $347.68 · official $347.68 (match) · 13 history records