Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:46:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
ED 0xed4c…b214 other 24 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$756 (+54%) realized +$280 · open +$476
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%5W / 9L
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$1,102now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$87
7 days+$262
14 days+$262
30 days+$262
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 73% +$649
sports 23% −$26
crypto 1% −$1
world 1% −$1
economics 1% +$117
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)+6.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +17.5% +6.3% 36% 36% +22.2%
≤30d 14 +17.5% +6.3% 36% 36% +22.2%
≤90d 14 +17.5% +6.3% 36% 36% +22.2%
all 14 +17.5% +6.3% 36% 36% +22.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.3% 36% +22.2%
10% -3.8% 36% +10.5%
15% -13.1% 36% -0.2%
20% -21.7% 29% -10.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 61% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +35% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +35% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +95% → late -60% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$106 vs −$30 · ×3.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.97 per $1 lost it wins $1.97
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$1,102
Realized+$280
Unrealized+$476
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses5 / 9
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions10
Markets (closed)14 / 24
History coverage10d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 37¢ $60 $395 +$335 (+558%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ $100 $166 +$66 (+66%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 28¢ 24¢ $187 $164 −$23 (-12%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 25¢ $15 $132 +$117 (+777%)
Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 13¢ 11¢ $138 $115 −$23 (-17%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 30¢ 32¢ $46 $50 +$4 (+8%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 16¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+3%)
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+3%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $31 −$30 -97%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 22 $51 −$51 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 22 $51 −$51 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 22 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $27 −$26 -97%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $11 −$11 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $123 +$220 +179%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 21 $10 +$73 +708%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $200 +$90 +45%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $35 −$34 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $41 +$47 +113%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $102 +$102 +100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 1h
Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY Yes 13¢ $71 1h
Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY Yes 13¢ $71 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 15¢ $31 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 26¢ $27 24h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 27¢ $11 25h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $21 25h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY Yes 23¢ $51 28h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 35¢ $123 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 20¢ $51 2d
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes $10 2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 68¢ $200 2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 29¢ $21 2d
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $35 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 13¢ $36 5d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? SELL Yes 36¢ $88 5d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 35¢ $151 5d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes $16 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? BUY Yes 15¢ $20 6d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 16¢ $41 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 49¢ $102 6d
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 30¢ $47 8d
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 8d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $41 8d
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $62 8d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,101.91 · official $1,102.94 (match) · 43 history records