Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:12:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
ED 0xed4c…c903 other 57 markets active 0h ago coverage 21d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$86 (-6%) realized −$63 · open −$23
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate47%20W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day5.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit26%portable
Net worth$414now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$152
7 days−$156
14 days−$151
30 days−$131
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 90% −$164
sports 5% +$15
crypto 3% −$12
world 1% +$4
finance 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-20.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -23.7% -30.9% 34% 24% -29.2%
≤30d 43 -12.0% -20.4% 47% 37% -22.8%
≤90d 43 -12.0% -20.4% 47% 37% -22.8%
all 43 -12.0% -20.4% 47% 37% -22.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.4% 37% -22.8%
10% -28.0% 28% -30.2%
15% -34.9% 21% -36.9%
20% -41.3% 19% -43.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -27% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$9 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$414
Realized−$63
Unrealized−$23
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses20 / 23
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions14
Markets (closed)43 / 57
History coverage21d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit26%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 88¢ 88¢ $197 $196 −$1 (-1%)
Will Colombia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 68¢ $36 $34 −$2 (-5%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 66¢ $34 $31 −$3 (-8%)
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Over 47¢ 62¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+33%)
Will Ivory Coast reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 11¢ $12 $10 −$2 (-19%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-29%)
Will Japan be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup? Yes 42¢ 27¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-36%)
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 Over 41¢ 52¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+28%)
Will Ivory Coast be the furthest advancing CAF nation at the World Cup? Yes 16¢ 9¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-44%)
Will Morocco be the furthest advancing CAF nation at the World Cup? Yes 34¢ 20¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-41%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Jordan vs. Argentina: Jordan O/U 0.5 Over 26¢ 22¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-15%)
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 0.5 Under 5¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 0.5 Jun 28 $33 +$7 +21%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $50 −$12 -23%
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 1 Portugal? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 3 Portugal? Jun 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 2 Portugal? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $179 −$12 -6%
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $121 −$18 -15%
Exact Score: Croatia 0 - 0 Ghana? Jun 27 $13 −$2 -14%
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Jun 27 $12 $0 +2%
Exact Score: Croatia 1 - 1 Ghana? Jun 27 $5 −$4 -80%
Exact Score: Croatia 1 - 0 Ghana? Jun 27 $5 +$4 +80%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 3 England? Jun 27 $5 +$6 +111%
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 27 $51 −$37 -74%
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 3 Belgium? Jun 27 $2 +$2 +95%
Exact Score: Egypt 1 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 27 $2 +$1 +53%
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 1 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 1 Spain? Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 2 Spain? Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 0 Spain? Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 0 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 27 $2 +$3 +157%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 26 $65 −$65 -100%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 3 France? Jun 26 $2 $0 -23%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 France? Jun 26 $2 −$1 -40%
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $76 +$7 +10%
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $25 −$8 -32%
Özgür Özel arrested by June 30? Jun 22 $2 −$1 -38%
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? Jun 22 $10 +$1 +8%
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $20 +$5 +23%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Jun 21 $11 −$10 -91%
Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $3 +$5 +144%
Will Haiti finish last in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Sta Jun 20 $10 +$2 +24%
Will Ivory Coast advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 15 $10 +$2 +18%
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $71 +$5 +6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $10 +$1 +11%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in June? Jun 11 $10 +$2 +20%
Will US withdraw from NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $2 $0 -8%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June? Jun 10 $10 +$12 +114%
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? Jun 09 $5 +$2 +47%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Jun 09 $16 +$5 +34%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $10 +$5 +53%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 07 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Jordan vs. Argentina: Jordan O/U 0.5 BUY Over 26¢ $2 20m
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $10 30m
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $40 40m
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 41¢ $5 44m
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 5¢ $2 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 5¢ $7 1h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 81¢ $33 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 3¢ $5 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $38 1h
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 88¢ $199 1h
Will Colombia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 73¢ $101 1h
Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 59¢ $168 1h
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 42¢ $103 1h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 3 Portugal? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 3h
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? SELL No 35¢ $12 4h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 2 Portugal? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 4h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 1 Portugal? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 4h
Exact Score: Croatia 1 - 1 Ghana? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 4h
Exact Score: Croatia 1 - 0 Ghana? SELL Yes 49¢ $9 4h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 3 England? SELL Yes 29¢ $11 4h
Exact Score: Croatia 1 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 5h
Exact Score: Croatia 0 - 0 Ghana? SELL Yes 22¢ $11 5h
Exact Score: Croatia 0 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 12¢ $8 18h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 3 England? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 21h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 2 Portugal? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 21h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 2 Portugal? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 21h
Exact Score: Croatia 1 - 1 Ghana? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 21h
Exact Score: Croatia 0 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 21h
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 3 Belgium? SELL Yes 39¢ $4 22h
Exact Score: Egypt 1 - 1 IR Iran? SELL Yes 24¢ $3 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $414.22 · official $414.22 (match) · 152 history records