Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T08:40:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
ED 0xed4c…03ca weather 49 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (118 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$8 (-2%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 49L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day118.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (118 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 -4.6% -13.7% 0% 0% -13.9%
≤30d 49 -4.6% -13.7% 0% 0% -13.9%
≤90d 49 -4.6% -13.7% 0% 0% -13.9%
all 49 -4.6% -13.7% 0% 0% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover118.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.7% 0% -13.9%
10% ← realistic here -21.9% 0% -22.2%
15% -29.5% 0% -29.7%
20% -36.4% 0% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$1 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 49
Open positions0
Markets (closed)49 / 49
History coverage1d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day118.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 49 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 23? Jun 21 $19 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 23? Jun 21 $11 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 23? Jun 21 $11 −$1 -11%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju Jun 21 $15 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 23? Jun 21 $19 −$1 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 23? Jun 21 $19 −$4 -21%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 23? Jun 21 $19 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 23? Jun 21 $6 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 23? Jun 21 $19 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 23? Jun 21 $19 $0 -2%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 20°C on June 23? Jun 21 $2 $0 -10%
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on June 23? Jun 21 $19 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 23? Jun 21 $15 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 22? Jun 21 $4 $0 -4%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Jun Jun 21 $1 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 23? Jun 21 $3 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 23? Jun 21 $33 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 23? Jun 21 $0 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 23? Jun 21 $33 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on June 23? Jun 21 $4 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 22? Jun 21 $14 −$1 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 23? Jun 21 $0 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on June 22? Jun 21 $2 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 22? Jun 21 $15 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 21 $6 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 22? Jun 21 $6 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 22? Jun 21 $3 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 21 $15 −$3 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 22? Jun 21 $15 −$1 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 22? Jun 21 $3 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 22? Jun 21 $0 $0 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 22? Jun 21 $2 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 21? Jun 20 $15 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 21? Jun 20 $15 −$1 -6%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Jun Jun 20 $0 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 22? Jun 20 $8 $0 -3%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 22? Jun 20 $1 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on June 22? Jun 20 $1 $0 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on June 22? Jun 20 $1 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 22? Jun 20 $19 −$1 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 22? Jun 20 $19 −$3 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 22? Jun 20 $8 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 22? Jun 20 $10 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 21? Jun 20 $2 $0 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on June 22? Jun 20 $19 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 21? Jun 20 $0 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 22? Jun 20 $19 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 22? Jun 20 $16 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 21? Jun 20 $1 $0 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 23? SELL No 73¢ $18 2m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 23? BUY No 74¢ $19 2m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 23? SELL No 81¢ $4 19m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 23? SELL Yes 29¢ $8 19m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 23? BUY No 81¢ $4 20m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 23? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 20m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 23? SELL No 81¢ $7 22m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju SELL Yes 32¢ $4 22m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 23? SELL Yes 32¢ $1 22m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju BUY Yes 32¢ $5 24m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju SELL Yes 32¢ $7 24m
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 23? SELL No 83¢ $18 25m
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 23? BUY No 88¢ $19 25m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 23? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 25m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 23? SELL Yes 32¢ $1 25m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 23? BUY No 81¢ $7 25m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 23? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 25m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju BUY Yes 32¢ $2 31m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju SELL Yes 32¢ $0 31m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju BUY Yes 32¢ $1 32m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju SELL Yes 32¢ $1 32m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju SELL Yes 32¢ $1 32m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju SELL Yes 32¢ $1 32m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju SELL Yes 32¢ $1 32m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju BUY Yes 32¢ $6 32m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju BUY Yes 32¢ $1 32m
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 23? SELL No 65¢ $15 48m
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 23? SELL Yes 24¢ $18 55m
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 23? BUY Yes 24¢ $19 55m
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 23? SELL No 64¢ $6 56m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 118 history records