Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:45:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
ED 0xed4a…2681 crypto 149 markets active 5d ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$106 (-8%) realized −$106 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate48%71W / 78L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day36.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$58
14 days−$109
30 days−$127
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$127
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-31.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 80 -12.3% -20.6% 56% 36% -16.0%
≤30d 149 -24.7% -31.8% 48% 36% -17.8%
≤90d 149 -24.7% -31.8% 48% 36% -17.8%
all 149 -24.7% -31.8% 48% 36% -17.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -31.8% 36% -17.8%
10% ← realistic here -38.4% 26% -25.7%
15% -44.3% 17% -32.8%
20% -49.8% 14% -39.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -37% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$106
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses71 / 78
Open positions0
Markets (closed)149 / 149
History coverage12d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day36.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 149 Trades
no open positions (52 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$5 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 12 $9 +$2 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +56%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +75%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 12 $9 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 12 $11 −$10 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 12 $8 +$7 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 10 $14 −$9 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 10 $12 −$2 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$2 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 10 $12 +$5 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 10 $12 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 10 $13 +$2 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 10 $16 +$6 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 10 $9 +$3 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 10 $12 +$9 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 10 $8 +$1 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 10 $14 +$6 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 10 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 10 $8 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 -5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 10 $14 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 10 $8 $0 -3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 10 $9 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 10 $12 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 10 $9 −$1 -8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 10 $25 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 10 $23 −$22 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 10 $16 −$7 -42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$6 +66%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 10 $8 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $8 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $2 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $9 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $2 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $4 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $4 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $4 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $3 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $8 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 518 history records