Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T17:39:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
ED 0xed47…5d79 other 144 markets active 1h ago coverage 191d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$939 (+5%) realized +$992 · open −$53
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate64%86W / 49L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$128per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$572now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days+$288
14 days+$308
30 days+$46
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 33% +$500
politics 29% +$52
world 25% +$396
tech 3% −$181
economics 3% +$63
sports 2% −$64
culture 2% +$49
weather 2% +$46
finance 1% +$27
crypto 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +38.9% +25.7% 80% 60% +22.2%
≤30d 23 +10.0% -0.5% 52% 48% -7.9%
≤90d 64 -3.5% -12.7% 58% 31% -5.1%
all 135 +0.6% -9.0% 64% 34% -4.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 34% -4.7%
10% -17.7% 21% -13.8%
15% -25.7% 12% -22.1%
20% -33.0% 6% -29.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$31 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.63 per $1 lost it wins $1.63
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

191d coverage
Net worth$572
Realized+$992
Unrealized−$53
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses86 / 49
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions9
Markets (closed)135 / 144
History coverage191d
Avg bet$128
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 135 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 69¢ 66¢ $288 $275 −$13 (-5%)
Will Yvette Cooper be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026? No 85¢ 84¢ $85 $84 −$1 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 19¢ $50 $60 +$10 (+19%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ $28 $48 +$20 (+70%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $50 $43 −$7 (-15%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $32 $24 −$8 (-24%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $26 $16 −$10 (-39%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $12 $15 +$3 (+24%)
Will Nico Schlotterbeck join Real Madrid? Yes 35¢ $54 $8 −$46 (-85%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 24 $100 −$7 -7%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $303 +$202 +67%
Jung Chung-rae out as DP leader by December 31, 2026? Jun 21 $182 +$19 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5AM ET Jun 19 $1 +$1 +93%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $233 +$73 +32%
Will New Zealand be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 16 $83 −$3 -3%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $30 −$21 -70%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $61 +$24 +40%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $17 −$2 -12%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $126 +$29 +23%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $50 −$2 -4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? Jun 12 $88 −$10 -11%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Korea Republic O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $30 +$4 +13%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $81 +$34 +42%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 11 $10 −$2 -15%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $129 −$31 -24%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 10 $10 +$3 +31%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 08 $10 −$4 -37%
Will Park Wan-soo win the 2026 Gyeongsangnam Province Gubernatorial El Jun 04 $75 +$75 +100%
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 03 $419 −$408 -97%
Will Kim Sang-wook win the 2026 Ulsan mayoral election? Jun 03 $344 +$77 +22%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $30 +$20 +67%
Will Kim Kyung-soo win the 2026 Gyeongsangnam Province Gubernatorial E May 28 $102 −$26 -26%
Will Ferran Torres be included in Spain's official 2026 World Cup squa May 25 $100 +$2 +2%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22? May 23 $153 +$12 +8%
Will Jernej Vrtovec be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? May 22 $130 +$1 +1%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $16 +$6 +40%
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair between May 15 and May 22? May 21 $100 +$1 +1%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $20 −$20 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 213.5 May 19 $50 +$24 +48%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? May 18 $985 +$113 +12%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 09 $151 +$4 +3%
Will the Liberal Democrats win the second-most council seat elections May 08 $146 +$4 +2%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 26 $10 $0 -3%
Hawks vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Apr 25 $57 −$57 -100%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Apr 21 $310 −$22 -7%
US x Cuba economic deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 20 $58 −$1 -1%
Will Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win between 85-89 seats in the 2026 Bul Apr 19 $54 +$4 +7%
Warriors vs. Suns Apr 18 $47 +$7 +16%
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? Apr 18 $50 −$4 -7%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? Apr 16 $600 +$35 +6%
Warriors vs. Clippers: O/U 221.5 Apr 16 $50 −$49 -97%
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 14 $200 +$9 +4%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Apr 14 $350 −$1 -0%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 4.5 Apr 14 $20 +$9 +44%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 14 $100 +$3 +3%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 12 $587 +$171 +29%
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by April 19, 2026? Apr 12 $50 +$3 +6%
Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on April 10, 2026? Apr 10 $100 +$5 +4%
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliament Apr 10 $200 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 69¢ $292 1h
Will Spain be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? SELL No 83¢ $93 1h
Will Yvette Cooper be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK i BUY No 85¢ $85 4h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $504 2d
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 59¢ $201 3d
Jung Chung-rae out as DP leader by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 81¢ $201 3d
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 59¢ $102 3d
Will Nico Schlotterbeck join Real Madrid? BUY Yes 35¢ $55 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 5d
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 80¢ $81 8d
Will New Zealand be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? SELL Yes 70¢ $81 8d
Will New Zealand be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 71¢ $83 9d
Jung Chung-rae out as DP leader by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 72¢ $182 9d
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 73¢ $152 10d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 25¢ $9 11d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 81¢ $30 11d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 64¢ $15 11d
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe SELL Yes 100¢ $155 11d
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY Yes 81¢ $126 12d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 65¢ $48 12d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? SELL Yes 73¢ $78 12d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? BUY Yes 81¢ $88 12d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY Yes 71¢ $51 12d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 12d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 73¢ $17 12d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 28¢ $8 12d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Korea Republic O/U 2.5 BUY Under 88¢ $30 12d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 68¢ $50 12d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 33¢ $10 12d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 72¢ $98 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $572.49 · official $572.50 (match) · 388 history records