Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:17:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
ED 0xed47…9d90 world 59 markets active 2h ago coverage 90d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$390 (+9%) realized +$578 · open −$188
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip
Net edge+9%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate52%25W / 23L
Drawdown61%max
Avg bet$72per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$262now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$295
7 days+$398
14 days+$316
30 days+$588
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 50% +$455
crypto 25% −$261
finance 17% +$51
politics 3% +$196
other 3% −$10
tech 2% −$54
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)+9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +47.6% +33.5% 100% 75% +50.6%
≤30d 14 +83.2% +65.7% 57% 43% +35.6%
≤90d 47 +23.4% +11.7% 53% 49% +5.5%
all 48 +20.9% +9.3% 52% 48% +4.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.3% 48% +4.1%
10% -1.1% 48% -5.9%
15% -10.7% 42% -14.9%
20% -19.4% 40% -23.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late +36% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$71 vs −$52 · ×1.35 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.47 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$262
Realized+$578
Unrealized−$188
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses25 / 23
Open positions11
Markets (closed)48 / 59
History coverage90d
Avg bet$72
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown61%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 20 $270 +$295 +109%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 18 $100 +$55 +55%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 16 $200 +$47 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 14 $28 +$1 +3%
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $100 −$67 -67%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $100 −$6 -6%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $100 −$9 -9%
Will Matteo Arnaldi win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 05 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Donald Trump announce Todd Blanche as the next United States Atto Jun 04 $21 +$215 +1037%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 30 $102 +$71 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET May 23 $26 −$25 -95%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $30 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET May 22 $52 −$6 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET May 22 $26 +$40 +152%
Will Donald Trump announce Harmeet Dhillon as the next United States A May 13 $31 −$30 -96%
Will Israel strike 3 countries in 2026? May 09 $150 −$150 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 06 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 06 $100 +$51 +51%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? May 05 $42 −$40 -95%
Will the Republican Party win the LA-02 House seat? May 05 $31 +$60 +195%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET May 04 $31 +$24 +76%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 04 $80 −$80 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET May 04 $83 −$21 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET May 01 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? May 01 $120 +$63 +52%
Will Israel strike 2 countries in April 2026? May 01 $250 +$220 +88%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Apr 30 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Apr 29 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Apr 29 $42 +$81 +192%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Apr 29 $65 −$63 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Apr 29 $41 −$40 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Apr 29 $52 +$43 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Apr 28 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Apr 28 $21 +$19 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Apr 28 $21 +$19 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Apr 28 $21 +$15 +73%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on April 27? Apr 26 $150 −$141 -94%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? Apr 24 $100 +$75 +75%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 19? Apr 19 $120 −$112 -93%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 17 $150 −$150 -100%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? Apr 16 $100 +$112 +112%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? Apr 13 $100 +$26 +26%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April? Apr 13 $150 +$40 +27%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 07 $50 +$63 +125%
Will Israel strike ≥4 countries in March 2026? Apr 02 $100 +$59 +59%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of March? Apr 02 $160 +$72 +45%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? Mar 23 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March? Mar 22 $50 −$50 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 91¢ $247 1h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 88¢ $155 2d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 26¢ $40 4d
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 57¢ $100 4d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY Yes 16¢ $40 4d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 90¢ $247 4d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 73¢ $200 5d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 74¢ $200 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $25 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $3 6d
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $77-$84 in June? BUY Yes 32¢ $51 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 20¢ $50 8d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 43¢ $319 8d
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $33 9d
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $100 12d
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? SELL Yes 60¢ $94 12d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 61¢ $91 12d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 67¢ $100 12d
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? BUY Yes 64¢ $100 12d
Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO da BUY Yes 29¢ $51 13d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 38¢ $51 13d
Will Anthropic’s market cap be $600B or greater at market close on IPO BUY No $21 15d
Will Matteo Arnaldi win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes $26 15d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 10¢ $70 15d
Will Donald Trump announce Todd Blanche as the next United States Atto SELL Yes 99¢ $236 16d
Will Jacob deGrom win the 2026 AL Cy Young Award? BUY Yes 12¢ $41 26d
Will Jacob deGrom win the 2026 AL Cy Young Award? BUY Yes $31 26d
Will the US strike 9 countries in 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $30 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $26 28d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 23¢ $33 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $262.10 · official $262.10 (match) · 102 history records