Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T16:01:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
ED 0xed44…4f76 sports 82 markets active 0h ago coverage 13d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 12d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (266 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$16,613 (+63%) realized +$16,775 · open −$162
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +75% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +35% what you keep after slip
Net edge+35%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate46%48W / 57L
Whale WR25%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$321per market
Trades / day266.4pace
Fees−$683est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$443now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 13d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$712
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (266 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)+58.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +312.3% +273.0% 40% 37% -28.6%
≤30d 105 +75.4% +58.7% 46% 18% -17.5%
≤90d 105 +75.4% +58.7% 46% 18% -17.5%
all 105 +75.4% +58.7% 46% 18% -17.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover266.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +58.7% 18% -17.5%
10% ← realistic here +43.5% 13% -25.4%
15% +29.6% 11% -32.6%
20% +16.9% 11% -39.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +75% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 25% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -14% → late +163% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
24.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$146 vs −$223 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$443
Realized+$16,775
Unrealized−$162
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses48 / 57
Whale WR (big bets)25%
Est. fees paid−$683
Open positions4
Markets (closed)105 / 82
History coverage13d ⚠
Avg bet$321
Trades / day266.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 105 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BetBoom Team 80¢ 100¢ $132 $166 +$34 (+25%)
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner 9z 87¢ 100¢ $95 $109 +$14 (+15%)
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BetBoom Team 61¢ 44¢ $148 $107 −$41 (-28%)
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BetBoom Team 82¢ 66¢ $75 $61 −$14 (-19%)
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner FUT Esports 10¢ 0¢ $120 $1 −$120 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 45 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs PARIVISION - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $57 +$2,138 +3753%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $26 −$61 -236%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs TYLOO (BO1) - CS Asia Championships Group A Jun 15 $14 −$402 -2939%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs M80 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $5 +$31 +634%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Legacy (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Playoffs Jun 15 $7 +$87 +1314%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy - Map 4 Winner Jun 15 $383 +$448 +117%
Counter-Strike: BC.Game Esports vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $0 −$1 -1460%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - CS Asia Championship Jun 15 $6 −$47 -824%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs MOUZ (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Pla Jun 15 $88 +$1,150 +1305%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 15 $22 −$22 -102%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Yandex (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 15 $28 −$25 -91%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs paiN (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group A Jun 15 $66 +$747 +1133%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $194 −$410 -212%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy - Map 3 Winner Jun 15 $64 −$2,480 -3890%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $14 +$72 +522%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $1,042 −$1,371 -132%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group B Jun 15 $9 −$34 -358%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $9 +$27 +287%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $208 −$167 -81%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs M80 (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Grou Jun 15 $21 +$970 +4633%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs M80 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $43 −$50 -116%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $420 −$290 -69%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs PARIVISION (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Jun 15 $88 +$645 +729%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs PARIVISION - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $160 −$227 -143%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Liquid (BO1) - CS Asia Championships Gro Jun 15 $11 +$97 +893%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy (BO5) - CS Asia Championships P Jun 15 $4,578 −$5,960 -130%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $38 −$48 -127%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $1,300 −$205 -16%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $1,195 −$131 -11%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $101 +$3 +3%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $394 +$18 +5%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 07 $103 +$4 +4%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 07 $275 +$7 +2%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $64 +$10 +16%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 07 $66 +$2 +3%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $17 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $275 −$16 -6%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 06 $218 −$26 -12%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Monte (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $698 +$7 +1%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $335 −$15 -4%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $48 +$5 +10%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $216 −$10 -5%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $29 −$3 -10%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs 9z (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $210 −$50 -24%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $188 −$10 -5%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 06 $246 −$19 -8%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $174 −$18 -10%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $72 −$19 -26%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $275 −$43 -16%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs B8 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $330 −$11 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 82¢ $76 0m
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 72¢ $79 0m
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 32¢ $62 0m
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL FUT Esports 19¢ $11 0m
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL FUT Esports 23¢ $9 0m
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL BetBoom Team 50¢ $45 0m
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 30¢ $31 1m
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 52¢ $49 1m
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL FUT Esports 27¢ $102 2m
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL FUT Esports 42¢ $90 2m
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 43¢ $73 6m
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 25¢ $75 6m
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 24¢ $23 7m
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 32¢ $16 7m
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL BetBoom Team 70¢ $215 8m
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL BetBoom Team 80¢ $50 8m
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL BetBoom Team 81¢ $60 8m
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 81¢ $49 13m
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 74¢ $58 14m
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 46¢ $27 18m
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL FUT Esports 29¢ $77 18m
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 48¢ $64 18m
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 50¢ $61 19m
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL BetBoom Team 50¢ $22 19m
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL BetBoom Team 78¢ $84 20m
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 23¢ $64 20m
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 76¢ $83 20m
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 62¢ $15 20m
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 61¢ $12 21m
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL FUT Esports 24¢ $16 21m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $442.61 · official $442.61 (match) · 3500 history records