Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T06:41:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
ED 0xed43…b8d3 other 13 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$97 (+22%) realized +$97 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate23%3W / 10L
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day37.1pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% +$139
other 35% −$3
world 13% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-18.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -10.1% -18.7% 23% 23% +15.6%
≤30d 13 -10.1% -18.7% 23% 23% +15.6%
≤90d 13 -10.1% -18.7% 23% 23% +15.6%
all 13 -10.1% -18.7% 23% 23% +15.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.7% 23% +15.6%
10% ← realistic here -26.5% 23% +4.5%
15% -33.6% 15% -5.6%
20% -40.1% 15% -14.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 90% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +28% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +28% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$56 vs −$4 · ×12.39 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.72 per $1 lost it wins $3.72
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$97
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses3 / 10
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)13 / 13
History coverage1d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day37.1
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 13 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $57 −$14 -24%
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $61 +$61 +101%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $34 −$2 -6%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $51 +$17 +34%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $3 −$3 -98%
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $20 −$10 -47%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $6 −$4 -72%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $20 −$1 -7%
Norway to win the second half? Jun 26 $10 −$4 -37%
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $126 +$88 +70%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $10 −$2 -18%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $20 −$3 -17%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $20 −$2 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 85¢ $7 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 1h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 80¢ $49 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 10¢ $3 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 2h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 65¢ $11 2h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 59¢ $11 2h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 15¢ $8 2h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 17¢ $3 2h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 20¢ $4 2h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 20¢ $7 2h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 23¢ $10 2h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 43¢ $38 2h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $45 3h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 36¢ $14 3h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $15 4h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 28¢ $51 4h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 36¢ $31 4h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $34 4h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $18 4h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 4h
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 23¢ $11 4h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 5h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 7¢ $6 5h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 72¢ $50 5h
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $20 6h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 34¢ $19 6h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 35¢ $20 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 41 history records