Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:15:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
ED 0xed36…cd18 sports 539 markets active 2h ago coverage 34d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized +$12 · open −$22
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate68%366W / 172L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day26.7pace
Fees−$44est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$19
7 days−$123
14 days−$19
30 days−$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$88
other 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 127 -8.5% -17.3% 60% 60% -16.9%
≤30d 460 +0.5% -9.1% 67% 66% -9.9%
≤90d 538 +1.2% -8.5% 68% 67% -10.8%
all 538 +1.2% -8.5% 68% 67% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.5% 67% -10.8%
10% ← realistic here -17.2% 57% -19.4%
15% -25.2% 45% -27.2%
20% -32.5% 25% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$8 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$12
Unrealized−$22
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses366 / 172
Est. fees paid−$44
Open positions1
Markets (closed)538 / 539
History coverage34d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day26.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 538 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Natus Vincere 60¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 57 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $13 +$9 +66%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $14 −$14 -99%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $19 +$15 +79%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $27 −$27 -99%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $28 −$10 -35%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$2 +24%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $20 +$15 +76%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $16 −$16 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $24 +$12 +50%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $17 +$7 +41%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $17 −$17 -99%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $10 +$4 +36%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $10 +$9 +84%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $10 +$2 +19%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $10 +$3 +34%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $10 +$4 +38%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $10 +$6 +63%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $10 +$5 +54%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $10 +$5 +53%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $10 +$6 +60%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $10 +$4 +43%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $8 +$4 +48%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $3 +$5 +162%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $8 +$2 +26%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$2 +21%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 13 $3 −$3 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $12 +$3 +24%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 13 $10 +$3 +30%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $18 +$4 +23%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 13 $10 +$20 +203%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $27 −$27 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $19 +$8 +43%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $26 −$26 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $18 +$8 +42%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $19 −$19 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $14 +$7 +46%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $15 +$3 +23%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $20 +$9 +44%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $12 +$8 +63%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 13 $5 +$2 +48%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $8 +$7 +90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 60¢ $22 1h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof SELL Paper Rex 99¢ $22 1h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 59¢ $13 2h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY Paper Rex 69¢ $20 3h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 57¢ $14 3h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo SELL EDward Gaming 100¢ $34 4h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY EDward Gaming 55¢ $19 5h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 63¢ $27 6h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner BUY XLG Gaming 63¢ $10 6h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner SELL 9z 100¢ $37 7h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 48¢ $18 8h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 56¢ $10 9h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 80¢ $10 22h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 73¢ $10 22h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs SELL LYON 100¢ $36 22h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY LYON 56¢ $20 25h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 58¢ $16 25h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 100¢ $36 25h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 66¢ $24 26h
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner SELL G2 100¢ $24 26h
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 Esports 61¢ $17 27h
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL FUT Esports 99¢ $14 27h
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 70¢ $17 27h
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 72¢ $10 28h
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner BUY Legacy 44¢ $10 28h
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London SELL Leviatán Esports 99¢ $19 28h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner SELL Vitality 99¢ $12 29h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 83¢ $10 29h
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 53¢ $10 29h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 100¢ $13 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.02 · official $0.02 (match) · 1043 history records