Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:30:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
ED 0xed36…33d5 sports 165 markets active 1h ago coverage 75d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$711 (-5%) realized −$715 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate56%91W / 72L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$90per market
Trades / day5.4pace
Fees−$268est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$104now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$158
7 days−$391
14 days−$391
30 days−$613
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% −$1,723
other 25% +$390
world 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +1.9% -7.8% 50% 50% -17.8%
≤30d 27 -8.9% -17.6% 44% 44% -19.6%
≤90d 163 -7.1% -16.0% 56% 54% -17.1%
all 163 -7.1% -16.0% 56% 54% -17.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.0% 54% -17.1%
10% -24.0% 47% -25.0%
15% -31.4% 33% -32.3%
20% -38.1% 22% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$71 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

75d coverage
Net worth$104
Realized−$715
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses91 / 72
Est. fees paid−$268
Open positions2
Markets (closed)163 / 165
History coverage75d
Avg bet$90
Trades / day5.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 163 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? Yes 15¢ 18¢ $50 $62 +$12 (+23%)
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $50 $42 −$8 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 43 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $31 +$61 +199%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $202 +$97 +48%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $303 −$256 -85%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $203 −$172 -85%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $504 −$500 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $203 −$175 -86%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $405 −$400 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $204 +$35 +17%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $204 −$200 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $305 +$323 +106%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $95 +$216 +229%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $51 +$25 +48%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $154 +$133 +86%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $255 −$189 -74%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $256 +$393 +154%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $504 +$210 +42%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $306 +$118 +39%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $60 −$60 -100%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $51 −$4 -8%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $102 −$37 -37%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $184 −$180 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $104 −$50 -48%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $338 +$59 +18%
AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 2.5 May 19 $82 +$50 +61%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $165 +$67 +40%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 18 $304 −$234 -77%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $30 +$35 +114%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $51 −$41 -82%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $51 +$30 +59%
Juventus FC vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 2.5 May 17 $82 +$39 +48%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $50 −$25 -50%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $50 +$18 +36%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 16 $213 −$150 -70%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 16 $188 +$70 +38%
Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 2.5 May 15 $53 +$13 +25%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 14 $174 −$4 -2%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 13 $76 +$12 +16%
Southampton FC vs. Middlesbrough FC: O/U 2.5 May 12 $254 −$144 -57%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 12 $408 +$143 +35%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 12 $229 −$229 -100%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 211.5 May 12 $51 +$16 +32%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 11 $527 −$85 -16%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 10 $223 +$105 +47%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 10 $201 +$46 +23%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 09 $306 +$93 +30%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $51 +$14 +27%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 07 $166 −$164 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 10¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 15¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? SELL Yes 22¢ $92 27h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 7¢ $31 28h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $202 46h
Spread: Germany (-4.5) SELL Curaçao 11¢ $45 3d
Spread: Germany (-4.5) SELL Curaçao 8¢ $1 3d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) SELL Curaçao 8¢ $23 3d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) SELL Curaçao 8¢ $9 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 72¢ $504 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 8¢ $27 3d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 57¢ $203 3d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Curaçao 50¢ $203 3d
Spread: Germany (-4.5) BUY Curaçao 68¢ $303 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $405 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 24¢ $130 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 18¢ $102 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 71¢ $108 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 41¢ $204 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 65¢ $101 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 98¢ $628 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $305 5d
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 100¢ $311 5d
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 30¢ $95 5d
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 16¢ $76 5d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 37¢ $287 5d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 19¢ $154 5d
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 10¢ $51 5d
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 3¢ $51 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $104.17 · official $104.17 (match) · 433 history records