Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:23:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
ED 0xed35…7937 other 63 markets active 2h ago coverage 27d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$2,053 (+45%) realized +$1,528 · open +$525
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -57% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -67% what you keep after slip
Net edge-67%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate8%23W / 278L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$72per market
Trades / day26.2pace
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$1,618now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 27d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% +$136
culture 32% −$646
world 13% −$220
politics 6% −$118
tech 1% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-61.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 184 -92.4% -93.1% 3% 3% -75.3%
≤30d 301 -57.2% -61.3% 8% 8% -72.4%
≤90d 301 -57.2% -61.3% 8% 8% -72.4%
all 301 -57.2% -61.3% 8% 8% -72.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -61.3% 8% -72.4%
10% ← realistic here -65.0% 7% -75.0%
15% -68.4% 7% -77.4%
20% -71.5% 6% -79.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 45% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -78% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -57% · $-wt -78% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -92% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$9 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$1,618
Realized+$1,528
Unrealized+$525
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses23 / 278
Open positions216
Markets (closed)301 / 63
History coverage27d
Avg bet$72
Trades / day26.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 216 History 301 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will "Obsession" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on June 30? Yes 6¢ 96¢ $4 $57 +$54 (+1432%)
Will MrBeast's next video get between 49 and 50 million views on day 4? Yes 14¢ 97¢ $7 $48 +$41 (+578%)
Will Jack Doherty be sentenced to no prison time? Yes 50¢ 93¢ $24 $45 +$21 (+87%)
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? Yes 4¢ 72¢ $2 $43 +$41 (+1830%)
Will Corbin Mims win Love Island USA Season 8? Yes 5¢ 48¢ $3 $29 +$26 (+967%)
Will Emanuel Di Gioia win Big Brother Argentina 2026? Yes 2¢ 48¢ $1 $29 +$28 (+2277%)
Will Luana Fernández win Big Brother Argentina 2026? Yes 2¢ 48¢ $1 $29 +$28 (+2252%)
Will Eduardo Carrera win Big Brother Argentina 2026? Yes 2¢ 48¢ $1 $28 +$27 (+2228%)
Will Jennifer "Pincoya" Galvarini win Big Brother Argentina 2026? Yes 2¢ 48¢ $1 $28 +$27 (+2228%)
Will Juan "Juanicar" Caruso win Big Brother Argentina 2026? Yes 2¢ 48¢ $1 $28 +$27 (+2228%)
Will Lola "Lolo" Poggio win Big Brother Argentina 2026? Yes 2¢ 47¢ $1 $28 +$27 (+2203%)
Will Franco Zunino win Big Brother Argentina 2026? Yes 2¢ 47¢ $1 $28 +$27 (+2203%)
Will Solange "Sol" Abraham win Big Brother Argentina 2026? Yes 2¢ 46¢ $1 $28 +$27 (+2179%)
Will Brian Sarmiento win Big Brother Argentina 2026? Yes 2¢ 46¢ $1 $28 +$27 (+2179%)
Will Yanina Zilli win Big Brother Argentina 2026? Yes 2¢ 46¢ $1 $28 +$27 (+2179%)
Will Nazareno Pompei win Big Brother Argentina 2026? Yes 2¢ 46¢ $1 $28 +$27 (+2179%)
Will Cinzia Francischiello win Big Brother Argentina 2026? Yes 2¢ 46¢ $1 $28 +$26 (+2154%)
Will Lola Tomaszewski win Big Brother Argentina 2026? Yes 2¢ 46¢ $1 $28 +$26 (+2154%)
Will Olivia Rodrigo have 5 songs in Billboard top 10 for week of June 27? Yes 14¢ 90¢ $4 $26 +$21 (+526%)
Will Yisela "Yipio" Pintos win Big Brother Argentina 2026? Yes 2¢ 46¢ $1 $25 +$24 (+2179%)
Will Larry Page be 3rd richest person on December 31? Yes 3¢ 42¢ $2 $25 +$24 (+1460%)
Will Sergey Brin be 3rd richest person on December 31? Yes 3¢ 42¢ $2 $25 +$24 (+1454%)
Will Ted Cruz post 160-179 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 9¢ 42¢ $5 $25 +$20 (+360%)
Will Danelik Galazan win Big Brother Argentina 2026? Yes 2¢ 47¢ $1 $23 +$22 (+2203%)
Will Martín Rodríguez win Big Brother Argentina 2026? Yes 2¢ 46¢ $1 $23 +$22 (+2179%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 283 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 17 $5 +$49 +978%
Will Scream 7 have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Marisa Marciel as Nami (ONE PIECE) win Best Anime Voice Artist Pe Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Zelenskyy post 200+ posts from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Will "Wanda Sykes: Legacy" be the top global Netflix show this week? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will "Cleaner" be the top global Netflix movie this week? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Cristina Peña as Reze (Chainsaw Man – The Movie: Reze Arc) win Be Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Anthony Jones win Top Chef Season 23? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will "The Cure - Olivia Rodrigo" be the #1 song on Spotify this week? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will "Backrooms" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 65m? Jun 17 $8 −$11 -131%
Will NYC Mayor post 160-179 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 17 $4 $0 -12%
Will "The Great Divide - Noah Kahan" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get 50 million or more views on day 1? Jun 17 $19 −$22 -114%
Will White House post 80-99 posts from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 17 $3 −$5 -181%
Will "Worst Ex Ever: Season 2" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will "Habibti - Drake" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of J Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Zelenskyy post 100-119 posts from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 17 $2 +$8 +319%
Will "Man on Fire" be the top global Netflix show this week? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 40-59 Truth Social posts from June 5 to June 12 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -114%
Will Marta Barbará as Kaoruko Waguri (The Fragrant Flower Blooms With Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Ted Cruz post 40-59 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get 45 million or more views on day 2? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 20-39 Truth Social posts from June 5 to June 12 Jun 17 $3 +$6 +166%
Will Justin Tootla win Top Chef Season 23? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Khamenei post 35-39 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 17 $8 −$9 -105%
Will "The Crash" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? Jun 17 $2 $0 -12%
Will Taylor Swift have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listener Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will "Beat It - Michael Jackson" be the #1 song on Spotify this week? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will CZ post 40-59 posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 17 $4 −$5 -123%
Will NYC Mayor post 20-39 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will "THE REVO" by PORNOGRAFFITTI (My Hero Academia FINAL SEASON) win Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 40m and 44m? Jun 17 $1 −$2 -130%
Will Drake have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Zelenskyy post 160-179 posts from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Will "Maid of Honor - Drake" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the wee Jun 17 $2 −$3 -141%
Will "Kelli O'Hara" win Best Leading Actress in a Play at the 2026 Ton Jun 17 $4 −$5 -116%
Will "Devil May Cry: Season 2" be the top global Netflix show this wee Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Planet Fitness be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 1 Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Raafat Bazo as Yuri Briar (SPY x FAMILY Season 3) win Best Anime Jun 17 $3 −$3 -84%
Will Zelenskyy post 120-139 posts from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 17 $6 −$9 -153%
Will "A Good Girl's Guide to Murder: Season 2" be the #2 US Netflix sh Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will "Honey Lemon Soda" win Best Romance Anime at the 2026 Crunchyroll Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Khamenei post 60+ posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Will "Obsession" 4th Weekend Box Office be greater than 30m? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Ted Cruz post 200+ posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Michael have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will CZ post 140-159 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Kendrick Lamar have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listen Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will NYC Mayor post 80-99 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 2h
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 2h
Will Olivia Rodrigo have 5 songs in Billboard top 10 for week of June SELL Yes 91¢ $20 3h
Will Michael B. Jordan be named People's Sexiest Man Alive in 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 4h
Will Georgia win Junior Eurovision 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 4h
Will Croatia win Junior Eurovision 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 4h
Will France win Junior Eurovision 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 4h
Will Georgia win Junior Eurovision 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $3 4h
Will Georgia win Junior Eurovision 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $3 4h
Will Croatia win Junior Eurovision 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 4h
Will Croatia win Junior Eurovision 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 4h
Will Ukraine win Junior Eurovision 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $8 4h
Will Ireland win Junior Eurovision 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 4h
Will Albania win Junior Eurovision 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $3 4h
Will San Marino win Junior Eurovision 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 4h
Will France win Junior Eurovision 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $4 4h
Will Albania win Junior Eurovision 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $3 5h
Will San Marino win Junior Eurovision 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 5h
Will Poland win Junior Eurovision 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $4 5h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 6h
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 6h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $9 7h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 48 and 49 million views on day 4 SELL Yes 9¢ $3 9h
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from June 19 to June SELL Yes 19¢ $1 9h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 10h
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 10h
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 10h
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 10h
Will MrBeast's next video get 52 million or more views on day 4? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,617.51 · official $1,617.80 (match) · 872 history records