Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T16:18:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
ED 0xed34…5a7f world 34 markets active 0h ago coverage 34d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$42 (-2%) realized −$24 · open −$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate9%3W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$15
14 days+$0
30 days−$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% −$5
other 28% −$26
crypto 8% −$15
politics 6% $0
economics 4% $0
finance 4% −$5
sports 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +1.6% -8.1% 29% 0% -7.0%
≤30d 25 -2.5% -11.8% 12% 0% -10.7%
≤90d 32 -2.7% -12.0% 9% 0% -11.3%
all 32 -2.7% -12.0% 9% 0% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 0% -11.3%
10% -20.4% 0% -19.8%
15% -28.1% 0% -27.6%
20% -35.2% 0% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 97% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$2 · ×3.18 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized−$24
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses3 / 29
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)32 / 34
History coverage34d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 30¢ 20¢ $60 $41 −$19 (-32%)
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Yes 15¢ 16¢ $8 $8 +$1 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 23 $64 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Jun 21 $60 $0 -0%
Will Spirit reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 19 $43 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 19 $21 $0 -0%
Fed rate hike in 2026? Jun 19 $76 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 18 $198 +$10 +5%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 17 $80 +$6 +7%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? Jun 15 $48 −$14 -30%
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $35 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 14 $116 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $9 $0 -2%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 10 $18 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? Jun 09 $14 $0 -0%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 08 $74 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? Jun 08 $27 −$1 -2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? Jun 07 $36 −$4 -11%
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026? Jun 05 $31 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 02 $23 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in June? Jun 02 $20 $0 -2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? May 30 $13 $0 -0%
Ebola case in the US by June 30? May 30 $62 −$6 -10%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 30 $33 −$5 -15%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 27 $36 +$1 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 26 $76 $0 -0%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? May 25 $48 $0 -0%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 23 $66 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 23 $46 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 22 $51 $0 -0%
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? May 22 $53 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 21 $12 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 20 $76 $0 -0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? May 20 $64 −$16 -24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY Yes 15¢ $8 0m
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $40 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $40 2h
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 30¢ $61 14h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? SELL No 52¢ $46 26h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY No 51¢ $49 26h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $24 45h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $24 2d
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? SELL Yes 60¢ $60 2d
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY Yes 60¢ $60 2d
Will Spirit reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $43 3d
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL Yes 42¢ $21 3d
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL No 38¢ $76 4d
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 38¢ $76 4d
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 42¢ $21 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 16¢ $53 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 16¢ $53 5d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 43¢ $86 5d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 40¢ $80 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 25¢ $50 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 25¢ $50 8d
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? SELL Yes 14¢ $34 8d
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 69¢ $34 8d
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 69¢ $35 8d
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? BUY Yes 20¢ $48 8d
Will Spirit reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $11 8d
Will Spirit reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $32 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 32¢ $32 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 32¢ $32 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 27¢ $54 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.25 · official $49.25 (match) · 151 history records