Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:32:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
ED 0xed34…a8c7 other 334 markets active 2h ago coverage 92d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 92d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$382 (-0%) realized −$380 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate94%306W / 21L
Whale WR99%big bets
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$1,526per market
Trades / day37.0pace
Kalshi-fit1%portable
Net worth$4,022now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 92d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$10,988
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +2.0% -7.7% 100% 17% -9.2%
≤30d 47 -5.0% -14.1% 89% 6% -9.4%
≤90d 320 +0.2% -9.4% 93% 5% -9.9%
all 327 +1.6% -8.0% 94% 6% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.0% 6% -7.6%
10% -16.8% 3% -16.4%
15% ← realistic here -24.9% 2% -24.5%
20% -32.2% 2% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 89% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 99% (≥$2,151) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$160 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×4.27 per $1 lost it wins $4.27
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$4,022
Realized−$380
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses306 / 21
Whale WR (big bets)99%
Open positions7
Markets (closed)327 / 334
History coverage92d ⚠
Avg bet$1,526
Trades / day37.0
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit1%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 327 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,996 $1,995 −$1 (-0%)
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $792 $791 −$1 (-0%)
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $498 $498 −$0 (-0%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $498 $498 −$0 (-0%)
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $122 $122 +$0 (+0%)
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $88 $88 +$0 (+0%)
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $29 $29 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 17 $47 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 17 $90 +$10 +11%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 17 $1,496 +$4 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 17 $1,503 +$5 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 17 $1,996 +$4 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 17 $1,996 +$4 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 09 $1,996 +$2 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $299 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 08 $549 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 08 $499 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 08 $1,996 +$2 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 08 $93 +$7 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 06 $498 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? Jun 05 $2,495 +$2 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 05 $2,024 +$5 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $499 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 05 $498 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 01 $998 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? May 31 $6,979 +$14 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? May 30 $1,996 +$2 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? May 30 $1,994 +$4 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? May 30 $536 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 29 $499 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? May 29 $499 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? May 29 $2,176 +$2 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 28 $498 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 27 $797 +$2 +0%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 27 $2 $0 +24%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 26 $508 +$2 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $2,499 +$5 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 24 $2,503 +$2 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 23 $134 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 23 $1,497 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 23 $3,179 +$3 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 23 $489 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 23 $997 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $299 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? May 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 18 to May 20, 2026? May 22 $26 +$4 +16%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 22 $533 +$2 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from May 18 to May 20, 2026? May 22 $1,994 +$6 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 22 $4,791 +$9 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 19 $498 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 19 $499 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 19 $2,646 +$2 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 18 $145 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 18 $498 +$2 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 17 $1,997 +$4 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $499 1h
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $122 1h
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $88 1h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $498 1h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $496 1h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $296 1h
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,996 1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $29 1h
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,998 8d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $300 8d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $64 8d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $487 8d
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,996 8d
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $998 9d
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $997 9d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $549 9d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $499 9d
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $499 9d
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $47 9d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $90 9d
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $997 9d
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $506 9d
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,996 9d
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $499 9d
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,998 9d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $299 9d
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $485 11d
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $13 11d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $17 12d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $7 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,021.77 · official $4,021.77 (match) · 3500 history records