Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T06:46:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
ED 0xed30…789d sports 97 markets active 2h ago coverage 23d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$76 (+2%) realized +$71 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate54%50W / 43L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day8.9pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$22
7 days−$9
14 days+$8
30 days+$80
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% +$10
other 29% +$68
crypto 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -23.5% -30.8% 50% 29% -9.9%
≤30d 93 -4.9% -13.9% 54% 39% -7.7%
≤90d 93 -4.9% -13.9% 54% 39% -7.7%
all 93 -4.9% -13.9% 54% 39% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.9% 39% -7.7%
10% -22.2% 31% -16.5%
15% -29.7% 27% -24.6%
20% -36.6% 19% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +23% → late -32% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$9 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized+$71
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses50 / 43
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions4
Markets (closed)93 / 97
History coverage23d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day8.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 93 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 22¢ $16 $22 +$5 (+34%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 12¢ $6 $4 −$2 (-26%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 3¢ $1 $3 +$1 (+81%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 30 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 6.5 Jun 27 $200 +$1 +0%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 5.5 Jun 27 $200 +$10 +5%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 4.5 Jun 27 $35 +$9 +27%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $20 $0 -1%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $20 +$13 +63%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $20 +$11 +52%
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -97%
Norway vs. France: O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $100 +$4 +4%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 6.5 Jun 26 $201 +$7 +3%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $100 +$13 +13%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $201 −$1 -0%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $61 +$25 +41%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 24 $20 −$16 -80%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $10 +$7 +68%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $20 −$5 -23%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -97%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $200 +$4 +2%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $20 +$11 +52%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $126 +$8 +6%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $50 +$6 +12%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $30 +$8 +26%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 +$9 +85%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 Jun 21 $100 +$10 +10%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 Jun 21 $101 +$8 +8%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $1 +$2 +191%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $101 −$57 -57%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $20 −$20 -99%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $51 +$7 +14%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $162 +$35 +22%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $82 −$32 -40%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $11 −$11 -98%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $14 −$3 -24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 96¢ $0 1h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 96¢ $10 1h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 96¢ $191 1h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 95¢ $200 1h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 98¢ $210 2h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 93¢ $200 2h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 88¢ $23 2h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 88¢ $9 2h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 88¢ $13 2h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 72¢ $7 2h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 68¢ $27 2h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 68¢ $20 2h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 68¢ $20 3h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 99¢ $4 4h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 99¢ $29 4h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $31 4h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 65¢ $20 5h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $20 9h
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 59¢ $30 20h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 20h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 20h
Norway vs. France: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 4¢ $2 24h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL Yes 97¢ $104 29h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 93¢ $100 29h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 94¢ $0 30h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 94¢ $130 30h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 94¢ $76 30h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 91¢ $201 30h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 99¢ $114 32h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 87¢ $100 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.70 · official $38.81 (match) · 221 history records