Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:07:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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ED 0xed30…87b1 weather 288 markets active 0h ago coverage 70d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 70d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$5,453 (+7%) realized +$5,397 · open +$56
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -65% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -73% what you keep after slip
Net edge-73%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate24%188W / 590L
Whale WR93%big bets
Drawdown33%max
Avg bet$275per market
Trades / day31.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,322now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$305
7 days−$287
14 days+$504
30 days+$1,547
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$5,187
crypto 0% +$1
world 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-68.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 576 -93.5% -94.2% 4% 2% -6.9%
≤30d 629 -85.0% -86.4% 11% 4% -3.4%
≤90d 778 -65.0% -68.3% 24% 9% -2.9%
all 778 -65.0% -68.3% 24% 9% -2.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -68.3% 9% -2.9%
10% ← realistic here -71.4% 6% -12.2%
15% -74.1% 4% -20.7%
20% -76.7% 3% -28.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -65% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 93% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -30% → late -100% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$6 · ×7.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.45 per $1 lost it wins $2.45
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$1,322
Realized+$5,397
Unrealized+$56
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses188 / 590
Whale WR (big bets)93%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)778 / 288
History coverage70d ⚠
Avg bet$275
Trades / day31.4
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 778 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 17? Yes 78¢ 91¢ $1,135 $1,322 +$187 (+17%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 17? Yes 56¢ 0¢ $131 $0 −$131 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 498 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dogecoin Up or Down - March 27, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - March 29, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 4, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 4, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - March 24, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - March 30, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - March 29, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - March 30, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 2, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 1, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 3, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 5, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - March 30, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - March 25, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - March 24, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - March 30, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 5, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 7, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - March 26, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 5, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 4, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - March 23, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 3, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 7, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - March 27, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 5, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - March 30, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 5, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 6, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 3, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - March 26, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - March 30, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - March 26, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 5, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 6, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - March 29, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 1, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 1, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - March 25, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 3, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 1, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 1, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 4, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - March 30, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 3, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 4, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 4, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - March 30, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 4, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - March 29, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 17? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 7m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 17? SELL Yes 94¢ $1 14m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 17? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 16m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 17? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 16m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 17? SELL Yes 9¢ $2 16m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 17? SELL Yes 9¢ $0 16m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 17? SELL Yes 15¢ $4 19m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 17? SELL Yes 15¢ $4 19m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 17? SELL Yes 34¢ $4 23m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 17? SELL Yes 34¢ $7 23m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 17? SELL Yes 40¢ $0 24m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 17? BUY Yes 55¢ $12 25m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 17? SELL Yes 65¢ $1 29m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 17? BUY Yes 35¢ $40 31m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 17? SELL Yes 65¢ $43 31m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 17? SELL Yes 65¢ $49 33m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 17? BUY Yes 60¢ $9 59m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 17? BUY Yes 60¢ $29 59m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 17? BUY Yes 60¢ $28 59m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 17? BUY Yes 70¢ $14 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 17? BUY Yes 70¢ $24 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 17? BUY Yes 85¢ $219 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $16 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $250 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $12 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $250 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $250 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $36 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 17? BUY Yes 92¢ $35 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,322.39 · official $1,326.04 (match) · 3500 history records