Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:04:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
ED 0xed2f…8f01 crypto 117 markets active 1h ago coverage 139d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$29,347 (-37%) realized −$29,130 · open −$217
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate33%37W / 75L
Whale WR29%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$685per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$80est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$3,583now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$2,333
30 days−$5,744
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% −$28,864
sports 7% −$698
other 1% −$40
finance 1% −$700
politics 1% +$288
world 0% −$200
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-25.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 38 -19.7% -27.4% 34% 24% -54.3%
≤90d 38 -19.7% -27.4% 34% 24% -54.3%
all 112 -17.8% -25.6% 33% 26% -52.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.6% 26% -52.5%
10% -32.7% 26% -57.1%
15% -39.2% 21% -61.2%
20% -45.2% 18% -65.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -50% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -44% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 29% (≥$529) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -14% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$471 vs −$632 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

139d coverage
Net worth$3,583
Realized−$29,130
Unrealized−$217
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses37 / 75
Whale WR (big bets)29%
Est. fees paid−$80
Open positions5
Markets (closed)112 / 117
History coverage139d
Avg bet$685
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 112 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Yes 43¢ 42¢ $1,000 $988 −$12 (-1%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 Over 14¢ 14¢ $1,000 $964 −$36 (-4%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $1,000 $950 −$50 (-5%)
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 1.5 Over 28¢ 29¢ $400 $414 +$14 (+4%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 2.5 Over 4¢ 3¢ $400 $267 −$133 (-33%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 58 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 09 $1,795 −$1,700 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 09 $106 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 09 $422 +$133 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 09 $317 −$300 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 09 $529 −$529 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 09 $519 +$163 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 03 $595 −$595 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 03 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 03 $911 −$880 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 03 $735 −$399 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 03 $1,297 −$1,297 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 03 $312 −$312 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 03 $418 −$400 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 03 $315 −$167 -53%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 03 $204 +$187 +92%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 03 $90 −$90 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 03 $217 +$68 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 03 $106 +$385 +364%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 03 $313 +$25 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 03 $106 −$106 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 03 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 03 $115 +$102 +88%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 7.5 Jun 03 $215 −$210 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 03 $118 −$118 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 03 $108 −$108 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 03 $105 +$93 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 02 $201 +$3 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 02 $43 −$43 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 02 $418 −$127 -30%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 02 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 02 $106 +$606 +571%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 02 $105 +$222 +212%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Jun 02 $202 +$2 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 02 $215 −$75 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 02 $332 +$10 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 19, 6AM ET Feb 19 $100 +$118 +118%
Solana Up or Down - February 19, 6AM ET Feb 19 $100 +$159 +160%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on February 19 Feb 19 $100 −$100 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 19, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Feb 19 $100 +$153 +153%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Feb 19 $600 +$896 +149%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 19? Feb 19 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 6AM ET Feb 19 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 19? Feb 19 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Feb 18 $892 −$879 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Feb 18 $4,160 −$1,832 -44%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 18, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Feb 18 $100 −$99 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Feb 18 $1,100 −$1,088 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 1.5 BUY Over 28¢ $409 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 14¢ $1,026 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 2.5 BUY Over 4¢ $412 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $1,017 1h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $1,027 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $106 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $297 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $127 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $240 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $183 8d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $106 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $47 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $377 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $400 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $19 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $260 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $57 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $106 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET SELL Up 46¢ $554 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $106 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $210 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET SELL Down 63¢ $682 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $482 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $37 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $24 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $82 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $167 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $255 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $911 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $53 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,583.47 · official $3,576.33 (match) · 267 history records