Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T10:15:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
ED 0xed2b…3aba sports 20 markets active 6d ago coverage 247d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$7,176 (+12%) realized +$7,176 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate35%7W / 13L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown59%max
Avg bet$2,879per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$326est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$6,322
14 days−$6,322
30 days−$6,322
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 82% +$213
sports 18% +$6,819
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)+7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -59.2% -63.1% 11% 11% -65.0%
≤30d 9 -59.2% -63.1% 11% 11% -65.0%
≤90d 11 +33.5% +20.7% 27% 27% -2.8%
all 20 +18.8% +7.5% 35% 35% +1.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +7.5% 35% +1.5%
10% ← realistic here -2.8% 35% -8.2%
15% -12.2% 30% -17.1%
20% -20.8% 20% -25.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$3,808) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +72% → late -34% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
8.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3,230 vs −$1,198 · ×2.7 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.45 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

247d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$7,176
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses7 / 13
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$326
Open positions0
Markets (closed)20 / 20
History coverage247d
Avg bet$2,879
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown59%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 20 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $1,560 +$1,562 +100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 15 $182 −$145 -80%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $440 −$440 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $560 −$172 -31%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $580 −$130 -22%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $521 −$521 -100%
Will Claude 5 be released by February 28, 2026? Jun 15 $5,190 −$5,190 -100%
MVP Fight Night: Ronda Rousey vs. Gina Carano Jun 15 $1,271 −$1,271 -100%
UFC 327: Jirí Procházka vs. Carlos Ulberg (Light Heavyweight, Main Car May 10 $24 +$171 +711%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $3,808 +$7,207 +189%
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett (Lightweight, Main Card) Jan 25 $1,300 +$573 +44%
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 22? Nov 21 $15,986 +$7,403 +46%
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 30? Nov 21 $16,441 +$5,629 +34%
Discord IPO in 2025? Nov 05 $100 −$59 -59%
Tech Release Parlay Nov 05 $100 −$8 -8%
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 15? Nov 04 $9,180 −$7,594 -83%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31? Nov 04 $100 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek’s DeepSeek V3.1 Chat win the NOF1.ai competition? Nov 03 $120 −$32 -27%
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by October 31? Nov 01 $108 +$64 +59%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 70¢ $350 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 70¢ $350 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 30¢ $289 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 30¢ $1 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 30¢ $5 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 30¢ $111 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 30¢ $10 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 30¢ $33 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 40¢ $5 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 40¢ $13 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 40¢ $2 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 40¢ $3 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 40¢ $2 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 40¢ $2 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 40¢ $524 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 40¢ $1 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 10¢ $22 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 10¢ $55 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 10¢ $23 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis $6 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis $11 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis $6 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis $6 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Derrick Lewis 30¢ $122 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Derrick Lewis 30¢ $5 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Derrick Lewis 30¢ $5 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Derrick Lewis 30¢ $100 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Derrick Lewis 30¢ $1 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Derrick Lewis 30¢ $2 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Derrick Lewis 30¢ $13 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 255 history records