Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:13:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
ED 0xed28…6b05 other 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 446d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate48%14W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% +$3
other 34% $0
politics 14% −$2
crypto 5% −$2
tech 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +2.5% -7.3% 86% 14% -8.5%
≤30d 8 +2.1% -7.6% 75% 12% -8.7%
≤90d 8 +2.1% -7.6% 75% 12% -8.7%
all 29 -2.3% -11.6% 48% 3% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 3% -9.8%
10% -20.0% 0% -18.4%
15% -27.8% 0% -26.3%
20% -34.9% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

446d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses14 / 15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)29 / 29
History coverage446d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 29 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $37 +$1 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $40 +$1 +2%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $42 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $36 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $35 +$1 +2%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $28 −$2 -9%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $11 +$2 +18%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 10 $36 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 15 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 15 $2 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Jun 26 $18 −$2 -13%
Will Karol Nawrocki win by 4-8%? Jun 03 $2 $0 +4%
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? May 18 $19 $0 +0%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2025? May 17 $20 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $100k in April? May 06 $7 −$2 -25%
Will the PPC win 0 seats in the next Canadian Election? Apr 16 $21 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 325–349 times April 11–18? Apr 16 $1 $0 -42%
Will the Greens be part of the next German government? Apr 15 $21 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk buy TikTok before July? Apr 14 $17 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon Julian Assange in his first 100 days? Apr 12 $24 $0 +0%
Will Jimmy Patronis win by less than 20%? Apr 11 $24 $0 +0%
Will Frankfurt win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 11 $24 $0 -1%
Will Hideki Matsuyama win The 2025 Masters? Apr 08 $24 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard be out as Director of National Intelligence in Trum Apr 07 $25 $0 +1%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Apr 04 $24 $0 -0%
Will the Giants draft Jalen Milroe? Apr 04 $24 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in March? Apr 03 $23 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands win Eurovision 2025? Mar 30 $1 $0 -9%
Will Facebook implement "community notes" before April? Mar 30 $24 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 68¢ $38 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 66¢ $37 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 10¢ $7 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 10¢ $0 13h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 10¢ $4 13h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 10¢ $4 13h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $11 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $25 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $36 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $8 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $8 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 84¢ $31 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 84¢ $3 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 82¢ $8 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 82¢ $25 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 44¢ $36 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 43¢ $35 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 32¢ $3 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 32¢ $22 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 35¢ $24 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 35¢ $4 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $2 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $11 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $7 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $23 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $9 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 86 history records