Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T21:24:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
ED 0xed23…5eab crypto 13 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$15 (+5%) realized +$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate75%9W / 3L
Drawdown55%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day23.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$67now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 75% +$13
weather 25% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -3.8% -13.0% 75% 50% -4.0%
≤30d 12 -3.8% -13.0% 75% 50% -4.0%
≤90d 12 -3.8% -13.0% 75% 50% -4.0%
all 12 -3.8% -13.0% 75% 50% -4.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.0% 50% -4.0%
10% ← realistic here -21.3% 25% -13.2%
15% -28.9% 8% -21.6%
20% -35.9% 8% -29.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 71% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.61 per $1 lost it wins $2.61
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$67
Realized+$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses9 / 3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)12 / 13
History coverage1d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day23.0
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 28? No 92¢ 92¢ $67 $67 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 27 $111 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 27 $39 +$11 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 27 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 27 $5 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 27 $6 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 27 $6 +$4 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 27 $7 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 27 $6 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 27 $6 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 27 $0 $0 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 27 $4 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 27 $10 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 28? BUY No 92¢ $68 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $111 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $23 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $39 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $7 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Up 54¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Down 82¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Down 82¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $7 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET SELL Up 63¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $67.38 · official $67.38 (match) · 30 history records