Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:03:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
ED 0xed22…6450 weather 342 markets active 1h ago coverage 88d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 88d only
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$311 (+1%) realized +$318 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate39%138W / 212L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$83per market
Trades / day38.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$232now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$69
7 days−$37
14 days+$79
30 days−$490
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$148
sports 0% $0
world 0% $0
other 0% +$14
economics 0% −$1
tech 0% −$1
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)+4.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -26.3% -33.3% 6% 6% -45.8%
≤30d 94 -22.3% -29.7% 32% 30% -20.5%
≤90d 350 +15.0% +4.1% 39% 36% -8.7%
all 350 +15.0% +4.1% 39% 36% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover38.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +4.1% 36% -8.7%
10% ← realistic here -5.9% 29% -17.4%
15% -15.0% 21% -25.4%
20% -23.3% 18% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +40% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
7.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$70 vs −$46 · ×1.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$232
Realized+$318
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses138 / 212
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)350 / 342
History coverage88d ⚠
Avg bet$83
Trades / day38.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 350 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 21? No 74¢ 78¢ $148 $155 +$7 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 21? No 61¢ 58¢ $61 $58 −$2 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 21? Yes 19¢ 10¢ $19 $10 −$9 (-46%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 21? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $11 $9 −$2 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 96 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on March 23? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 54°F or higher on March 23? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 24°C or below on March Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 22°C on March 22? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 29°C or higher on Marc Jun 20 $11 −$3 -29%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on March 23? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 28°C on March 23? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on March 21? Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 26°C on March 23? Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C or higher on March 22 Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Crude Oil all time high by March 31? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on March 23? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on March 22? Jun 20 $11 −$19 -176%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 26°C on March 21? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by March 31, 2026? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3 +$32 +1009%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $146 +$198 +136%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $147 −$18 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $22 −$10 -46%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 13? Jun 13 $73 −$62 -84%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $46 +$54 +117%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $59 −$39 -66%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $55 −$18 -33%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $29 +$7 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 −$8 -78%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $12 −$12 -96%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06- Jun 12 $5 +$14 +270%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $43 −$43 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C or below on June 10? Jun 11 $125 +$26 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 9? Jun 11 $57 +$86 +150%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 10? Jun 09 $50 −$5 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $39 −$34 -86%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $34 −$33 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 9? Jun 09 $21 −$21 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C or higher on June 9? Jun 09 $53 −$32 -61%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 7? Jun 08 $109 +$18 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 7? Jun 07 $75 +$25 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 7? Jun 07 $19 +$14 +76%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 7? Jun 07 $30 +$14 +48%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 7? Jun 07 $18 −$10 -56%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 6? Jun 06 $30 +$4 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 6? Jun 06 $28 +$27 +94%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on June 6? Jun 06 $40 +$12 +29%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 6? Jun 06 $102 −$35 -34%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on June 6? Jun 06 $21 −$20 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C or below on June 6? Jun 06 $8 −$8 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 6? Jun 06 $14 −$14 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 6? Jun 06 $55 −$53 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 6? Jun 06 $10 −$9 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 6? Jun 06 $9 −$7 -79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 21? BUY No 61¢ $1 42m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 21? BUY No 61¢ $2 49m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 21? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 59m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 21? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 59m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 21? BUY Yes 6¢ $7 59m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 21? BUY Yes 19¢ $19 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 21? BUY No 61¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 21? BUY No 61¢ $57 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 21? BUY No 75¢ $12 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 21? BUY No 74¢ $138 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 16? SELL Yes 80¢ $7 4d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 16? SELL Yes 80¢ $29 4d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 16? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 4d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY 36¢ $31 5d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY 35¢ $36 5d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 AND Spread: Spain (-2.5) AND Will IR Ira BUY 18¢ $26 5d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? BUY No 42¢ $63 7d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? BUY No 41¢ $9 7d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? BUY No 43¢ $15 7d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? BUY No 40¢ $58 7d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 13? SELL Yes 12¢ $6 7d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 13? BUY Yes 13¢ $6 7d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 13? SELL No 76¢ $24 7d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 13? BUY No 66¢ $20 7d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 13? BUY No 56¢ $1 7d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 13? SELL No 61¢ $40 7d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 13? SELL No 60¢ $13 7d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 13? SELL No 64¢ $46 7d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 13? SELL No 17¢ $12 7d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 13? BUY No 31¢ $7 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $232.32 · official $232.32 (match) · 3500 history records