Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:21:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
ED 0xed22…ffc3 politics 38 markets active 1h ago coverage 267d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$24 (-4%) realized −$23 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate30%11W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 30% +$2
other 27% −$22
politics 19% $0
sports 9% $0
culture 9% $0
crypto 3% −$5
economics 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 6 +1.6% -8.1% 67% 0% -8.0%
≤90d 6 +1.6% -8.1% 67% 0% -8.0%
all 37 -5.3% -14.3% 30% 0% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.3% 0% -13.4%
10% -22.5% 0% -21.7%
15% -30.0% 0% -29.3%
20% -36.9% 0% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 81% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

267d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized−$23
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses11 / 26
Open positions1
Markets (closed)37 / 38
History coverage267d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 92¢ 90¢ $37 $36 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 26 $36 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 26 $18 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $35 +$2 +5%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 25 $39 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 24 $19 $0 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $34 +$1 +4%
Will Gold close above $4000 at the end of 2025? Jan 31 $22 −$22 -100%
Will the U.S. take over Gaza in 2025? Nov 10 $1 $0 -13%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 04 $19 $0 -1%
Will Diddy be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Oct 31 $5 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 31 $11 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 28 $2 $0 +8%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 28 $5 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 27 $5 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 27 $5 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 27 $32 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Oct 27 $5 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 13 $18 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 by December 31? Oct 12 $6 $0 -0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried in 2025? Oct 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will Alexei Gorinov win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 11 $27 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 10 $5 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 08 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Oct 07 $5 $0 +0%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Oct 06 $5 $0 -0%
Will People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the most seats in th Oct 05 $6 −$5 -74%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 29 $2 $0 -23%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 28 $24 $0 +0%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by September 30? Sep 28 $3 $0 -3%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 28 $26 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 26 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 26 $26 $0 +0%
Will 2025 be the hottest year on record? Sep 25 $26 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Sep 25 $27 $0 +0%
Will Bruno Mars be the top Spotify artist for 2025? Sep 24 $26 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $37 1h
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $36 22d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $36 22d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $18 22d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $18 22d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 87¢ $37 22d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 83¢ $35 23d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL No 97¢ $16 23d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL No 97¢ $23 23d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY No 97¢ $39 23d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $12 23d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $7 23d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $19 23d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 88¢ $22 24d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 88¢ $13 24d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 85¢ $34 24d
Will the U.S. take over Gaza in 2025? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 219d
Will the U.S. take over Gaza in 2025? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 219d
Will the U.S. take over Gaza in 2025? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 219d
Will the U.S. take over Gaza in 2025? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 219d
Will Gold close above $4000 at the end of 2025? BUY No 38¢ $6 219d
Will Gold close above $4000 at the end of 2025? BUY No 38¢ $16 219d
Will the U.S. take over Gaza in 2025? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 219d
Will the U.S. take over Gaza in 2025? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 219d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 95¢ $19 225d
Will Diddy be the #1 searched person on Google this year? SELL No 99¢ $5 229d
Will Diddy be the #1 searched person on Google this year? BUY No 99¢ $5 229d
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? SELL No 97¢ $6 229d
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? BUY No 96¢ $6 229d
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? SELL No 9¢ $0 232d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.20 · official $36.20 (match) · 154 history records