Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:06:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
ED 0xed20…74a0 sports 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$209 (-14%) realized −$204 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate45%15W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day14.0pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$71now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% +$40
other 25% −$251
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-21.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -13.5% -21.8% 45% 39% -22.5%
≤30d 33 -13.5% -21.8% 45% 39% -22.5%
≤90d 33 -13.5% -21.8% 45% 39% -22.5%
all 33 -13.5% -21.8% 45% 39% -22.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.8% 39% -22.5%
10% -29.3% 30% -30.0%
15% -36.1% 21% -36.7%
20% -42.4% 18% -42.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$32 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$71
Realized−$204
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses15 / 18
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions3
Markets (closed)33 / 36
History coverage4d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day14.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Over 71¢ 72¢ $61 $61 +$0 (+1%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $58 +$13 +23%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $49 +$14 +29%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $59 −$58 -99%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $13 −$13 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $81 +$70 +86%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $16 +$77 +468%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $51 +$30 +59%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $102 +$13 +13%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $86 +$31 +36%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $17 −$10 -57%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $100 +$14 +14%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $17 −$17 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $71 +$6 +8%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $46 +$54 +119%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $51 −$49 -96%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $81 −$53 -65%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 +$6 +30%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $87 −$86 -99%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $21 −$20 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $64 −$64 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $35 +$30 +86%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $36 −$1 -3%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $26 −$26 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $25 +$2 +6%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $14 +$11 +78%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $12 +$2 +21%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $12 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $62 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $72 1h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 9¢ $6 3h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 81¢ $58 3h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $64 3h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 77¢ $49 6h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $59 13h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $7 25h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $13 25h
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 1.5 BUY Over 37¢ $31 25h
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $151 27h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $20 28h
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 BUY Over 53¢ $81 28h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $93 29h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $16 31h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $101 31h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $81 41h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 BUY Over 62¢ $51 44h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 44h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $15 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 88¢ $102 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $117 2d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $17 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $86 2d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 99¢ $103 2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 16¢ $7 2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 11¢ $7 2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 2d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 83¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $71.02 · official $71.02 (match) · 67 history records