Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:34:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
ED 0xed1c…2e25 sports 161 markets active 1d ago coverage 25d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$218 (+7%) realized +$218 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate61%99W / 62L
Drawdown67%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day23.2pace
Fees−$42est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$17
7 days−$107
14 days+$142
30 days+$194
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% +$209
finance 2% −$14
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)+0.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 59 -8.5% -17.2% 51% 36% -15.7%
≤30d 161 +11.1% +0.5% 61% 52% -3.7%
≤90d 161 +11.1% +0.5% 61% 52% -3.7%
all 161 +11.1% +0.5% 61% 52% -3.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +0.5% 52% -3.7%
10% ← realistic here -9.1% 39% -12.9%
15% -17.9% 28% -21.3%
20% -25.9% 20% -29.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +22% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$8 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.39 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$218
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses99 / 62
Est. fees paid−$42
Open positions0
Markets (closed)161 / 161
History coverage25d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day23.2
Drawdown67%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 161 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $30 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $19 −$2 -9%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $39 −$6 -16%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $34 −$7 -20%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $25 +$5 +21%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $34 +$6 +17%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $53 +$2 +3%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $29 +$11 +39%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $14 +$1 +11%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $24 +$6 +24%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $40 $0 +1%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $43 +$28 +65%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $17 −$9 -51%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $14 $0 -1%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $16 $0 -2%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $34 +$12 +35%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $19 +$9 +49%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $8 +$9 +111%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $22 +$6 +27%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $20 $0 -1%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs Young Ninjas - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $4 −$4 -95%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 13 $19 −$19 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $66 −$19 -28%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $19 −$19 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $44 −$44 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $26 −$1 -2%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $25 −$7 -27%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $44 −$44 -99%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $40 −$40 -100%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $29 −$29 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $36 +$14 +39%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $38 +$8 +20%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $19 +$6 +32%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $26 +$14 +53%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $90 +$5 +6%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $3 +$6 +228%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $21 −$2 -8%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $13 +$1 +6%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy - Game 2 Win Jun 11 $33 +$12 +38%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $84 +$16 +19%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $89 +$11 +12%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy - Game 1 Win Jun 11 $10 −$1 -11%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $36 +$4 +10%
LoL: Weibo Gaming Youth Team vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $26 −$10 -37%
LoL: Weibo Gaming Youth Team vs Saigon Warriors - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $13 −$12 -91%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy (BO3) - Asia Jun 11 $19 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner SELL 9z 49¢ $10 34h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 48¢ $10 34h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner SELL TheMongolz 67¢ $1 34h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner SELL TheMongolz 67¢ $10 34h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner SELL TheMongolz 67¢ $10 34h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 66¢ $20 34h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 39¢ $18 34h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La SELL Top Esports Challenger 54¢ $5 34h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La SELL Top Esports Challenger 50¢ $10 34h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 42¢ $19 35h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner BUY Top Esports Challenger 34¢ $3 35h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner BUY Top Esports Challenger 34¢ $1 35h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner BUY Top Esports Challenger 36¢ $4 35h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner SELL Top Esports Challenger 47¢ $14 35h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY Top Esports Challenger 68¢ $3 35h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY Top Esports Challenger 70¢ $7 36h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY Top Esports Challenger 70¢ $4 36h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY Top Esports Challenger 69¢ $7 36h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner BUY Top Esports Challenger 47¢ $5 36h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner BUY Top Esports Challenger 46¢ $9 36h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner SELL Saigon Warriors 54¢ $10 36h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner SELL Saigon Warriors 56¢ $2 36h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La SELL Saigon Warriors 68¢ $17 36h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY Saigon Warriors 70¢ $18 36h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner BUY Saigon Warriors 60¢ $7 36h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner BUY Saigon Warriors 60¢ $6 36h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $30 37h
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner SELL KT Rolster Challengers 100¢ $40 37h
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner SELL KT Rolster Challengers 98¢ $20 38h
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner SELL KT Rolster Challengers 89¢ $36 38h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 609 history records