Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:26:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
ED 0xed1c…d11a politics 93 markets active 1h ago coverage 665d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$24 (-0%) realized −$24 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate1%1W / 92L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$197per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 84% −$20
other 14% −$4
sports 1% $0
economics 1% $0
tech 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 2 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 11 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 93 -8.1% -16.8% 1% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.8% 0% -9.6%
10% -24.8% 0% -18.3%
15% -32.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -38.7% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -16% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.8 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

665d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)1%
Wins / losses1 / 92
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)93 / 93
History coverage665d
Avg bet$197
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 93 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 17 $57 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $57 $0 -0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $57 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 14 $57 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 07 $57 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 03 $58 $0 -0%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 19 $59 $0 +0%
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 14 $59 $0 -0%
Will Casey Jarvis win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 09 $59 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 01 $59 $0 +0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Mar 22 $59 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 17 $59 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 10 $59 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 06 $59 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Mar 04 $59 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 01 $59 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 07 $58 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Nov 25 $57 $0 +0%
Will another player win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year? Jan 26 $2 $0 +0%
Will Leicester City be relegated? Jan 26 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jan 26 $2 $0 +0%
Will Brighton finish in the top 4 of EPL? Jan 26 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jan 26 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jan 26 $3 $0 +0%
Will Frankfurt win the UEFA Europa League? Jan 26 $4 $0 +0%
Will Kawhi Leonard lead the NBA in scoring? Jan 26 $4 $0 +0%
Will another player be the top Fantasy Quarterback? Jan 26 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the NFC West Jan 26 $3 $0 +0%
Will C.J. Stroud be the top Fantasy Quarterback? Jan 26 $4 $0 -0%
Will the Falcons win the NFC Championship? Jan 26 $3 $0 +0%
Ethena crash in 2024? Jan 26 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Lions win the NFC North? Jan 26 $3 $0 +0%
Will Satoshi Nakamoto's identity not be proven in 2024? Jan 26 $4 $0 +0%
Will CeeDee Lamb be the top Fantasy Flex Player? Jan 26 $4 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "doge" or "Dogecoin" during his inauguration speech? Jan 26 $4 $0 +0%
Will the CDU/CSU win 35-40% of the vote in the German election? Dec 20 $1 $0 -3%
Will Aston Villa finish in the top 4 of EPL? Dec 20 $0 $0 -3%
Doug Burgum confirmed as Secretary of the Interior? Dec 20 $0 $0 -3%
Will another player win the Heisman Trophy? Dec 20 $3 $0 +0%
Will RB Leipzig win the UEFA Champions League? Dec 20 $4 $0 +0%
Will Miller Moss win the Heisman Trophy? Dec 20 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Falcons win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 10 $0 $0 -0%
Will Mike Lee be Trump's Attorney General? Dec 10 $1 $0 -1%
Will Arsenal win the UEFA Champions League? Dec 10 $0 $0 -2%
Hunter Biden fined over 500k in gun case? Dec 10 $3 $0 +0%
Will Evan Mobley lead the NBA in Rebounds? Nov 26 $0 $0 -1%
Ten or more Trump Cabinet confirmations in January? Nov 26 $1 $0 -4%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the Western Conference? Nov 26 $1 $0 -2%
Will Aston Villa win the UEFA Champions League? Nov 17 $1 $0 -1%
Will the Houston Texans win the AFC South? Nov 17 $0 $0 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $57 1h
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $57 12h
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $57 14d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $57 15d
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $57 31d
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $57 32d
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $57 34d
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $57 34d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $57 41d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $57 42d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 99¢ $58 45d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 99¢ $58 45d
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? SELL No 100¢ $59 59d
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $59 60d
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? SELL No 100¢ $59 64d
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? BUY No 100¢ $59 65d
Will Casey Jarvis win the 2026 Masters tournament? SELL No 100¢ $59 69d
Will Casey Jarvis win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY No 100¢ $59 70d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $59 77d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $17 78d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $42 78d
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $59 87d
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $59 87d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $59 92d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $59 92d
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $59 99d
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $59 99d
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $59 103d
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $59 103d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? SELL No 99¢ $59 105d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 230 history records