Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T12:24:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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ED 0xed1c…36fa sports 409 markets active 1h ago coverage 62d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$368 (+4%) realized +$388 · open −$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate57%230W / 177L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day16.7pace
Fees−$77est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$162
7 days+$470
14 days+$489
30 days+$271
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% +$312
other 5% −$57
world 1% −$2
crypto 1% −$47
politics 1% −$3
culture 0% +$20
tech 0% −$1
finance 0% −$2
economics 0% −$5
weather 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +11.9% +1.2% 74% 67% +0.4%
≤30d 212 -3.2% -12.4% 58% 51% -6.0%
≤90d 407 -2.3% -11.6% 57% 49% -6.7%
all 407 -2.3% -11.6% 57% 49% -6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 49% -6.7%
10% -20.0% 42% -15.7%
15% -27.8% 34% -23.8%
20% -34.8% 25% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$8 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$388
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses230 / 177
Est. fees paid−$77
Open positions2
Markets (closed)407 / 409
History coverage62d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day16.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 407 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Trump out as President by June 30? No 95¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+5%)
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed Qualifier Playoffs CYBERSHOKE Esports 27¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 104 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: MASQ vs LPH Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group B Jun 20 $52 +$6 +12%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $247 +$53 +21%
Counter-Strike: ReThink vs BakS eSports (BO3) - ESEA European Finals P Jun 19 $562 +$52 +9%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 19 $102 −$98 -96%
Counter-Strike: Linx Legacy Esport vs Fortress (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Jun 19 $557 +$66 +12%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $144 −$76 -53%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Jun 18 $26 +$5 +18%
Counter-Strike: JiJieHao vs Phantom (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Cl Jun 18 $43 +$25 +58%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $51 +$24 +47%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $494 +$4 +1%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl Jun 18 $478 +$102 +21%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo Jun 17 $461 +$50 +11%
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 15 $65 +$14 +21%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $61 −$60 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $172 +$53 +31%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - NODWIN Clut Jun 15 $196 +$34 +17%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs G2 Ares (BO3) - European Pro League Series Jun 15 $21 −$17 -80%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Alliance (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 14 $182 +$35 +19%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $113 +$80 +71%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $226 +$131 +58%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 14 $7 −$6 -97%
Counter-Strike: Nexus vs Alliance (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 14 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$2 +19%
Counter-Strike: Washed vs MASONIC (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Playoffs Jun 14 $7 −$9 -139%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $20 +$3 +15%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $5 +$7 +136%
Counter-Strike: RUSTEC vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Jun 13 $49 +$18 +36%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $140 +$12 +9%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$3 +28%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 13 $136 +$7 +5%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $108 +$28 +26%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $20 +$9 +42%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $20 −$1 -4%
Will UD Las Palmas win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $20 +$7 +35%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $10 $0 -4%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $10 −$1 -6%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 −$1 -12%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $10 +$9 +91%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 09 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $20 +$7 +35%
LoL: Leviatan Esports vs paiN Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup South A Jun 09 $10 +$5 +48%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $10 +$3 +29%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $10 +$3 +31%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $10 $0 +5%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 08 $10 +$5 +53%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 08 $10 −$10 -97%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $10 −$10 -97%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $10 −$10 -97%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $10 +$1 +6%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 08 $10 −$10 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episo BUY CYBERSHOKE Esports 27¢ $21 1h
Counter-Strike: MASQ vs LPH Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group B SELL MASQ 47¢ $59 1h
Counter-Strike: MASQ vs LPH Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group B BUY MASQ 40¢ $52 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 82¢ $154 13h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 82¢ $66 13h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 82¢ $27 13h
Counter-Strike: ReThink vs BakS eSports (BO3) - ESEA European Finals P BUY ReThink 90¢ $562 17h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European Pro League Se SELL Sashi Esport 3¢ $4 25h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY Sashi Esport 71¢ $102 26h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 82¢ $32 40h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL 9z 18¢ $29 40h
Counter-Strike: Linx Legacy Esport vs Fortress (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen BUY Linx Legacy Esport 88¢ $557 41h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 66¢ $112 41h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League SELL Oxuji Esports 22¢ $4 44h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL BetBoom Team 8¢ $4 44h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 97¢ $484 45h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League BUY Infinite 58¢ $15 45h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League BUY Oxuji Esports 49¢ $10 45h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 20¢ $10 45h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 67¢ $51 46h
Counter-Strike: JiJieHao vs Phantom (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Cl BUY Phantom 62¢ $43 46h
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl SELL Ground Zero 12¢ $10 2d
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl BUY Rooster 80¢ $305 2d
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl BUY Rooster 61¢ $123 2d
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl BUY Ground Zero 62¢ $51 2d
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY Team Nemesis 80¢ $9 2d
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY Team Nemesis 90¢ $452 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 57¢ $20 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 70¢ $20 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 81¢ $20 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.79 · official $1.79 (match) · 1226 history records