Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T15:18:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
ED 0xed1b…6af2 crypto 134 markets active 0h ago coverage 158d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1,294 (-2%) realized −$1,294 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate97%130W / 4L
Whale WR97%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$516per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$136
7 days+$171
14 days−$1,272
30 days−$1,272
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,264
sports 0% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +1.2% -8.4% 94% 0% -8.6%
≤30d 72 -0.2% -9.7% 97% 0% -11.2%
≤90d 74 -1.5% -10.9% 96% 0% -11.2%
all 134 -0.5% -10.0% 97% 1% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 1% -11.2%
10% -18.6% 1% -19.7%
15% -26.5% 1% -27.5%
20% -33.7% 0% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 97% (≥$502) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$501 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

158d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,294
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses130 / 4
Whale WR (big bets)97%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)134 / 134
History coverage158d
Avg bet$516
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 134 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 18 $1,981 +$19 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 18 $1,103 +$11 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 18 $2,471 +$29 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 17 $2,970 +$30 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 17 $891 +$9 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 17 $1,082 +$12 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 17 $495 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $2,278 +$22 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $495 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 16 $198 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $495 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $498 +$9 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $891 +$9 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 16 $28 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $198 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 15 $198 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $495 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 12 $29 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 11 $1,026 +$10 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 11 $99 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 11 $990 +$10 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 11 $990 +$10 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 10 $2,442 +$34 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 10 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 10 $189 +$11 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 10 $99 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 10 $99 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 10 $29 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 09 $502 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 09 $9 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 09 $1,980 −$1,980 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 09 $514 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 08 $3,960 +$40 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 08 $2,772 +$28 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 08 $314 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 08 $2,448 +$52 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 08 $981 +$9 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 08 $1,980 +$20 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 08 $99 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 08 $2,085 +$21 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 08 $1,136 +$11 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 08 $2,673 +$27 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 08 $2,574 +$26 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 08 $1,158 +$12 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 08 $897 +$9 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 08 $990 +$10 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 08 $2,606 +$24 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 07 $1,485 +$15 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 07 $1,448 +$15 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1,981 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $7 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $12 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $31 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $852 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $198 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $37 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $91 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $65 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $23 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $957 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $49 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $98 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $86 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $495 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $39 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 795 history records