Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:31:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
ED 0xed1a…f67a crypto 119 markets active 2h ago coverage 115d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 114d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$197 (-3%) realized −$189 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate41%48W / 70L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$64per market
Trades / day26.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$139now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$59
14 days+$59
30 days+$59
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$162
other 2% −$8
sports 0% +$59
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-18.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +290.8% +253.6% 100% 100% +253.6%
≤30d 1 +290.8% +253.6% 100% 100% +253.6%
≤90d 1 +290.8% +253.6% 100% 100% +253.6%
all 118 -9.7% -18.3% 41% 20% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.3% 20% -10.8%
10% ← realistic here -26.1% 12% -19.3%
15% -33.2% 9% -27.1%
20% -39.8% 8% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +291% too few recent
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
25.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$7 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$139
Realized−$189
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses48 / 70
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)118 / 119
History coverage115d ⚠
Avg bet$64
Trades / day26.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 118 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $147 $139 −$8 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $20 +$59 +291%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Feb 25 $70 +$7 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Feb 24 $98 −$4 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Feb 24 $283 −$37 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Feb 24 $133 −$4 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Feb 24 $2 +$3 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Feb 24 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Feb 24 $164 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Feb 24 $103 +$10 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Feb 24 $246 +$35 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Feb 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Feb 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Feb 24 $39 +$31 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Feb 24 $54 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Feb 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Feb 24 $47 −$9 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Feb 24 $10 −$5 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Feb 24 $95 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Feb 24 $135 −$4 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Feb 24 $32 +$10 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Feb 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Feb 24 $25 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Feb 24 $96 −$17 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Feb 24 $52 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Feb 24 $49 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Feb 24 $50 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Feb 24 $64 −$5 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Feb 24 $35 −$6 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Feb 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Feb 24 $88 −$12 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Feb 24 $78 +$6 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Feb 24 $117 +$8 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Feb 24 $278 −$4 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Feb 24 $97 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Feb 24 $308 −$46 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Feb 24 $137 −$8 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Feb 24 $183 −$16 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Feb 24 $79 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Feb 24 $80 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Feb 24 $86 −$15 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Feb 24 $49 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Feb 24 $58 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Feb 24 $60 −$7 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Feb 24 $16 +$3 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Feb 24 $117 −$13 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Feb 24 $70 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Feb 24 $111 +$11 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Feb 24 $78 −$4 -5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on February 24? Feb 24 $1 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Feb 24 $21 −$2 -9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $151 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 100¢ $80 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 25¢ $20 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 112d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 112d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $2 112d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $6 112d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 112d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $2 112d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $2 112d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $3 112d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $2 112d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $3 112d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 112d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $3 112d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $3 112d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 112d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $0 112d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $0 112d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $0 112d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $3 112d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $6 112d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 112d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 112d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 112d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 112d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 112d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $3 112d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 112d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $2 112d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $138.91 · official $138.91 (match) · 3500 history records