Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T14:14:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

ED
0xed19…cb5e
world · 237 markets active 0h ago
3.5score
+$2,807 +7%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$4,133 · open +$106
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY world specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$4,677
Realized+$4,133
Unrealized+$106
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses129 / 48
Whale WR (big bets)91%
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions61
Markets (closed)177 / 237
History coverage103d
Avg bet$172
Trades / day32.6
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit83%
Chart Positions 61 History 177 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$126
7 days+$388
14 days+$760
30 days+$848
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran leadership change by December 31? No 66¢ 80¢ $543 $667 +$124 (+23%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 86¢ 78¢ $386 $349 −$37 (-10%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Yes 57¢ 62¢ $275 $300 +$25 (+9%)
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? No 57¢ 78¢ $215 $294 +$79 (+37%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 45¢ 52¢ $231 $267 +$36 (+16%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? No 92¢ 97¢ $230 $242 +$12 (+5%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? No 91¢ 83¢ $249 $228 −$21 (-8%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 48¢ 38¢ $222 $172 −$50 (-23%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? No 89¢ 90¢ $165 $169 +$3 (+2%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026? Yes 54¢ 80¢ $113 $166 +$53 (+47%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 No 85¢ 85¢ $162 $162 +$1 (+0%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 66¢ 62¢ $156 $147 −$9 (-6%)
Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 61¢ 64¢ $109 $115 +$5 (+5%)
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? No 70¢ 66¢ $108 $101 −$8 (-7%)
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by June 30? No 68¢ 98¢ $66 $94 +$28 (+42%)
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? Yes 77¢ 78¢ $92 $93 +$1 (+1%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? No 90¢ 80¢ $104 $91 −$12 (-12%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? No 91¢ 92¢ $80 $81 +$1 (+1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 72¢ 48¢ $115 $76 −$39 (-34%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 82¢ 90¢ $67 $74 +$6 (+9%)
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? No 69¢ 68¢ $68 $67 −$1 (-1%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 75¢ 74¢ $60 $59 −$1 (-2%)
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? No 92¢ 92¢ $57 $57 +$0 (+0%)
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? No 81¢ 80¢ $49 $48 −$1 (-1%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Yes 64¢ 50¢ $52 $40 −$11 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
FISA Section 702 reauthorized before it expires? Jun 14 $4 −$1 -28%
Kash Patel out by June 30? Jun 14 $29 +$6 +21%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 14 $80 −$17 -21%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 14 $37 +$10 +26%
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? Jun 14 $18 +$10 +54%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 14 $1 $0 +12%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $106 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 14 $302 +$56 +19%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $68 −$15 -23%
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 14 $61 −$4 -7%
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $13 $0 -2%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? Jun 14 $134 +$16 +12%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 14 $336 +$23 +7%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 14 $295 −$2 -1%
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $45 −$6 -12%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31? Jun 14 $19 −$19 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 14 $45 +$3 +6%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $5 −$2 -50%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $17 $0 -1%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 13 $259 +$5 +2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 12 $154 +$12 +8%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 12 $74 +$9 +12%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $38 +$18 +46%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $112 +$8 +7%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $26 +$22 +82%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 12 $5 $0 +6%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 12 $95 +$13 +14%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $23 −$23 -100%
Fed rate hike in 2026? Jun 12 $66 −$6 -10%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 12 $26 +$19 +72%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 11 $10 $0 -4%
AI data center in space by December 31, 2027? Jun 11 $5 −$1 -21%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $120 +$21 +18%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $113 +$7 +6%
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30? Jun 10 $525 +$109 +21%
Will the House pass a reconciliation bill by June 15? Jun 10 $9 +$1 +11%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $29 +$13 +44%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 09 $144 +$14 +10%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? Jun 08 $327 +$102 +31%
Flavio Cobolli vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $18 +$3 +18%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? Jun 07 $11 −$1 -9%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 07 $705 +$579 +82%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2027? Jun 07 $130 −$130 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? Jun 07 $261 −$261 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Jun 07 $208 +$6 +3%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 07 $394 +$57 +14%
Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormu Jun 07 $58 −$1 -1%
Iran leadership change by May 31? Jun 01 $1,128 +$99 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 78% +$4,206
other 10% +$583
culture 4% −$735
sports 3% +$78
politics 3% +$45
tech 1% +$67
economics 0% −$6
finance 0% +$1
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $22 9m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $1 9m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $2 9m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 64¢ $26 10m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY No 83¢ $17 12m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY No 84¢ $17 15m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL No 84¢ $4 25m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL No 84¢ $4 25m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 17¢ $7 25m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 17¢ $7 25m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY No 85¢ $45 30m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY No 86¢ $46 32m
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? SELL No 91¢ $146 55m
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY No 91¢ $52 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY No 91¢ $10 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY No 91¢ $1 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY No 91¢ $10 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 41¢ $7 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $8 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 41¢ $0 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY No 84¢ $17 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY No 84¢ $17 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL No 95¢ $76 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY No 86¢ $17 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL Yes 31¢ $12 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY No 85¢ $34 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY No 85¢ $51 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY No 91¢ $5 2h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY No 91¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)+14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 -0.6% -10.1% 60% 40% -0.3%
≤30d 53 -1.0% -10.4% 62% 40% +1.1%
≤90d 158 +8.4% -1.9% 72% 47% +3.7%
all 177 +26.1% +14.1% 73% 48% +2.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover32.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +14.1% 48% +2.4%
10% ← realistic here +3.2% 24% -7.4%
15% -6.8% 15% -16.4%
20% -15.9% 12% -24.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,676.52 · official $4,675.27 (match) · 3500 history records