Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:25:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
ED 0xed16…9314 crypto 1489 markets active 8h ago coverage 28d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 28d only
✗ bot/MM pace (70 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$423 (-3%) realized −$420 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate78%1192W / 335L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day69.7pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$343
7 days−$458
14 days−$473
30 days−$912
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$580
politics 2% −$34
other 2% +$44
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (70 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-17.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 176 -40.4% -46.1% 34% 23% -42.3%
≤30d 1527 -8.5% -17.2% 78% 21% -16.2%
≤90d 1527 -8.5% -17.2% 78% 21% -16.2%
all 1527 -8.5% -17.2% 78% 21% -16.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover69.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.2% 21% -16.2%
10% ← realistic here -25.2% 7% -24.2%
15% -32.4% 6% -31.5%
20% -39.0% 5% -38.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$6 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$420
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses1192 / 335
Open positions14
Markets (closed)1527 / 1489
History coverage28d ⚠
Avg bet$8
Trades / day69.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 1527 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Hannah Pingree win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary election? Yes 16¢ 55¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+241%)
Will Steven Elliott be the Republican Nominee for MI-10? Yes 9¢ 1¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-94%)
Will Catalina Lauf be the Republican nominee for FL-19? Yes 44¢ 56¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+26%)
Will Shenna Bellows win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary election? Yes 12¢ 27¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+128%)
Will Jim Schwartzel be the Republican nominee for FL-19? Yes 23¢ 26¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+10%)
Will Robert Lulgjuraj be the Republican Nominee for MI-10? Yes 18¢ 13¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-27%)
Will Jim Oberweis be the Republican nominee for FL-19? Yes 12¢ 11¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-8%)
Will Katie Porter finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-98%)
Will Casey Armitage be the Republican Nominee for MI-10? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+17%)
Will Bob Rommel be the Republican nominee for FL-19? Yes 5¢ 8¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+63%)
Will Spencer Roach be the Republican nominee for FL-19? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-18%)
Will Justin Kirk be the Republican Nominee for MI-10? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-88%)
Will Angus King III win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary election? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Will Chad Bianco finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 197 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $4 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $2 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $4 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $3 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $2 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $3 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $2 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET SELL Up 48¢ $3 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $2 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $2 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $5 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $3 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $6 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET SELL Up 74¢ $6 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $4 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $4 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $2 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.33 · official $0.19 · 3500 history records