Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:04:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
ED 0xed11…10be other 232 markets active 2h ago coverage 210d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2,681 (+1%) realized +$2,428 · open +$253
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate71%144W / 58L
Whale WR82%big bets
Drawdown69%max
Avg bet$1,198per market
Trades / day7.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$21,545now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$337
7 days−$605
14 days−$1,042
30 days−$1,119
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 31% −$1,064
world 28% +$69
politics 20% −$263
crypto 9% +$2,249
economics 5% +$103
sports 3% +$70
tech 2% +$196
finance 1% $0
culture 0% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-4.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -9.6% -18.2% 30% 13% -13.4%
≤30d 78 +13.3% +2.5% 56% 13% -10.9%
≤90d 142 +6.6% -3.5% 68% 12% -9.5%
all 202 +5.6% -4.5% 71% 11% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.5% 11% -9.1%
10% -13.6% 4% -17.8%
15% -21.9% 2% -25.8%
20% -29.6% 1% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 82% (≥$1,400) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late +12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$85 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

210d coverage
Net worth$21,545
Realized+$2,428
Unrealized+$253
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses144 / 58
Whale WR (big bets)82%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions30
Markets (closed)202 / 232
History coverage210d
Avg bet$1,198
Trades / day7.5
Drawdown69%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 30 History 202 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? No 74¢ 84¢ $3,481 $3,981 +$500 (+14%)
Will Base launch a token by September 30, 2026? No 95¢ 95¢ $2,760 $2,774 +$14 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? No 89¢ 92¢ $1,975 $2,053 +$78 (+4%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 84¢ 81¢ $1,890 $1,834 −$56 (-3%)
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 69¢ 68¢ $1,872 $1,822 −$50 (-3%)
Trump out as President by June 30? No 96¢ 100¢ $1,501 $1,552 +$52 (+3%)
Will voter turnout be 60-64% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 50¢ 98¢ $399 $791 +$392 (+98%)
Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026? No 96¢ 98¢ $772 $790 +$18 (+2%)
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $774 $780 +$5 (+1%)
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $737 $731 −$6 (-1%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Yes 52¢ 46¢ $774 $689 −$85 (-11%)
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2027? No 26¢ 26¢ $652 $645 −$7 (-1%)
US military draft authorized in 2026? No 88¢ 93¢ $545 $579 +$34 (+6%)
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 100¢ $560 $570 +$10 (+2%)
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 95¢ 92¢ $520 $507 −$13 (-3%)
Ethereum all time high by June 30, 2026? No 86¢ 100¢ $400 $461 +$61 (+15%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $300 $305 +$5 (+2%)
Will Canada reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 99¢ 99¢ $199 $198 −$1 (-1%)
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2027? No 50¢ 53¢ $124 $132 +$8 (+6%)
Will Hyperliquid reach $80 in June? No 55¢ 94¢ $63 $107 +$44 (+70%)
Will Canada reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 96¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Saudi Arabia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 96¢ $40 $41 +$1 (+3%)
Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? No 8¢ 1¢ $224 $28 −$196 (-88%)
Will Canada reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 59¢ 44¢ $30 $22 −$8 (-25%)
Will Cait Conley win the NY-17 Democratic Primary by less than 5%? Yes 6¢ 8¢ $12 $17 +$4 (+36%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Marco Rubio sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 23 $120 −$15 -13%
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? Jun 23 $629 $0 -0%
Will Cait Conley win the NY-17 Democratic Primary by 10–15%? Jun 23 $256 −$8 -3%
Will Alan Wilson win the South Carolina Republican Governor Primary Ru Jun 23 $69 −$6 -9%
Will Cait Conley win the NY-17 Democratic Primary by more than 15%? Jun 23 $156 −$51 -33%
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier win the NY-13 Democratic Primary by les Jun 23 $119 −$9 -8%
Will Cait Conley win the NY-17 Democratic Primary by 5–10%? Jun 23 $138 −$4 -3%
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? Jun 23 $1,222 −$308 -25%
Will Adrian Boafo be the Democratic nominee for MD-05? Jun 23 $420 −$13 -3%
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? Jun 23 $527 −$45 -9%
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? Jun 22 $697 +$168 +24%
No-Confidence Vote against Starmer by June 30? Jun 22 $45 −$44 -97%
Will Keir Starmer be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership e Jun 20 $155 −$13 -8%
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $25 +$3 +13%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 19 $270 −$7 -2%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 17 $4,242 −$342 -8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $167 +$53 +31%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $903 +$77 +8%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 16 $1,279 +$28 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $929 +$16 +2%
Will Hyperliquid reach $80 by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $214 −$130 -60%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? Jun 16 $144 −$38 -26%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 16 $1,400 +$84 +6%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $841 +$21 +2%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? Jun 16 $173 +$1 +0%
Will OpenAI IPO by July 31 2026? Jun 15 $1,432 +$9 +1%
Will Pavel Dorofeyev win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy? Jun 15 $63 $0 +0%
Will Taylor Hall win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy? Jun 15 $106 +$14 +13%
Will K'Andre Miller win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy? Jun 15 $732 +$2 +0%
Will Jackson Blake win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy? Jun 15 $213 +$15 +7%
Will Noah Hanifin score the most goals in a single game during the 202 Jun 15 $74 $0 +0%
Will Nic Dowd lead the 2026 Stanley Cup Finals in goals? Jun 15 $132 +$1 +1%
Will K'Andre Miller lead the 2026 Stanley Cup Finals in goals? Jun 15 $146 +$1 +1%
Will Rasmus Andersson lead the 2026 Stanley Cup Finals in points? Jun 15 $70 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $196 +$4 +2%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Jun 14 $790 +$63 +8%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? AND Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a dr Jun 14 $6 +$85 +1503%
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027? Jun 12 $3,388 +$41 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 12 $5,014 −$84 -2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 12 $133 +$4 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 12 $215 −$15 -7%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 12 $1,015 −$194 -19%
Will Hyperliquid reach $76 in June? Jun 12 $542 −$536 -99%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 12 $416 +$35 +8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 11 $6,580 −$700 -11%
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? Jun 11 $39 +$2 +5%
Will PPI YoY be between 6.0% and 6.9% in May? Jun 11 $895 −$186 -21%
Will PPI YoY be between 5.0% and 5.9% in May? Jun 11 $248 −$175 -71%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 10 $1,874 −$21 -1%
Will OpenAI IPO by September 30 2026? Jun 10 $983 +$168 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Marco Rubio sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL Yes 3¢ $49 1h
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? SELL No 75¢ $297 1h
Will Cait Conley win the NY-17 Democratic Primary by 10–15%? SELL No 63¢ $248 1h
Will Alan Wilson win the South Carolina Republican Governor Primary Ru SELL No 7¢ $63 1h
Will Cait Conley win the NY-17 Democratic Primary by more than 15%? SELL Yes 27¢ $105 1h
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier win the NY-13 Democratic Primary by les SELL Yes 19¢ $110 1h
Will Cait Conley win the NY-17 Democratic Primary by 5–10%? SELL No 86¢ $128 1h
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? SELL Yes 31¢ $202 1h
Will N’Kiyla “Jasmine” Thomas be the Democratic nominee for Senate in SELL No 9¢ $184 1h
Will Adrian Boafo be the Democratic nominee for MD-05? SELL No 21¢ $407 1h
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? SELL Yes 74¢ $438 1h
Will N’Kiyla “Jasmine” Thomas be the Democratic nominee for Senate in BUY No 9¢ $13 1h
Will Adrian Boafo be the Democratic nominee for MD-05? BUY No 21¢ $420 2h
Will Nate Blouin be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? BUY Yes 7¢ $77 2h
Will Marco Rubio sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 2h
Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? BUY No 8¢ $224 2h
Will N’Kiyla “Jasmine” Thomas be the Democratic nominee for Senate in BUY No 9¢ $4 3h
Will Marco Rubio sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL Yes 4¢ $55 3h
Will Nate Blouin be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 3h
Will Nate Blouin be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 3h
Will N’Kiyla “Jasmine” Thomas be the Democratic nominee for Senate in BUY No 9¢ $4 4h
Will Nate Blouin be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? BUY Yes 7¢ $4 4h
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier win the NY-13 Democratic Primary by les BUY Yes 20¢ $9 4h
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier win the NY-13 Democratic Primary by les BUY Yes 20¢ $110 5h
Will Nate Blouin be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? BUY Yes 7¢ $47 5h
Will Cait Conley win the NY-17 Democratic Primary by 10–15%? BUY No 64¢ $76 6h
Will Cait Conley win the NY-17 Democratic Primary by 10–15%? BUY No 64¢ $38 6h
Will Nate Blouin be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 7h
Will Cait Conley win the NY-17 Democratic Primary by 10–15%? BUY No 64¢ $3 7h
Will Nate Blouin be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21,545.26 · official $21,545.11 (match) · 1931 history records