Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T01:07:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
ED 0xed10…15ed sports 512 markets active 0h ago coverage 103d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Wins small, loses big⚠ Covers last 103d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! loses its big bets
Total PnL +$2,245 (+2%) realized +$2,212 · open +$33
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate56%286W / 225L
Whale WR38%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$274per market
Trades / day32.8pace
Fees−$1,649est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$203now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$341
7 days+$108
14 days+$72
30 days−$545
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$918
other 0% +$92
tech 0% +$68
crypto 0% −$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-1.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -8.4% -17.1% 54% 46% -6.3%
≤30d 113 +10.8% +0.2% 57% 48% -9.9%
≤90d 421 +6.8% -3.4% 56% 50% -9.0%
all 511 +9.3% -1.1% 56% 50% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.1% 50% -8.1%
10% ← realistic here -10.5% 44% -16.9%
15% -19.2% 37% -24.9%
20% -27.1% 29% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 38% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +13% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$93 vs −$114 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

103d coverage
Net worth$203
Realized+$2,212
Unrealized+$33
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses286 / 225
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Est. fees paid−$1,649
Open positions1
Markets (closed)511 / 512
History coverage103d ⚠
Avg bet$274
Trades / day32.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 511 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America Closed Qualifier Playoffs LGD Gaming 49¢ 58¢ $170 $203 +$33 (+19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $277 +$223 +80%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $476 +$89 +19%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $185 +$30 +16%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $271 −$114 -42%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $80 +$4 +5%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $223 −$117 -53%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $155 −$37 -24%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $371 +$135 +36%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $255 +$145 +57%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $229 −$67 -29%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $71 −$70 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $182 −$180 -99%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $267 +$68 +25%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $139 +$61 +44%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $518 +$331 +64%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $1,400 +$151 +11%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $460 +$240 +52%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $1,367 +$4 +0%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $334 +$416 +125%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $1,507 −$7 -0%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $908 +$165 +18%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $4,297 −$2,267 -53%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $710 −$304 -43%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $374 +$175 +47%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $224 +$176 +78%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $505 +$201 +40%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $619 +$85 +14%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $418 +$181 +43%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $1,077 +$145 +13%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $754 +$48 +6%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $214 +$136 +64%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $1,124 +$29 +3%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 04 $228 +$122 +54%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $450 $0 -0%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner Jun 04 $218 +$132 +61%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $297 +$213 +72%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 04 $365 +$184 +50%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $274 +$226 +82%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner Jun 04 $991 −$261 -26%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner May 30 $175 +$75 +43%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - BLAST Slam Last Chance Qualif May 30 $180 +$125 +69%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner May 30 $114 −$20 -18%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs OG - Game 2 Winner May 30 $152 +$48 +31%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs OG - Game 1 Winner May 30 $98 +$52 +54%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs OG (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $74 +$16 +22%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs GLYPH (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $60 +$19 +32%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $354 −$79 -22%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Xtreme Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $218 −$23 -11%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $240 −$103 -43%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $167 −$37 -22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America SELL LGD Gaming 40¢ $1 0m
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America BUY LGD Gaming 49¢ $172 24m
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner SELL LGD Gaming 100¢ $499 40m
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 55¢ $277 1h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner SELL PlayTime 100¢ $400 1h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner BUY PlayTime 58¢ $131 2h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner BUY PlayTime 58¢ $102 2h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner SELL LGD Gaming 42¢ $165 2h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 60¢ $243 2h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team - Game 1 Winner SELL Power Rangers 90¢ $84 36h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team - Game 1 Winner SELL Power Rangers 90¢ $100 36h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team - Game 1 Winner SELL Power Rangers 90¢ $30 36h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team - Game 1 Winner BUY Power Rangers 73¢ $24 36h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team - Game 1 Winner BUY Power Rangers 78¢ $74 36h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team - Game 1 Winner BUY Power Rangers 78¢ $82 36h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team - Game 1 Winner BUY Power Rangers 82¢ $5 36h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 40¢ $157 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $271 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 SELL Under 42¢ $83 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 SELL Under 42¢ $1 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 BUY Under 40¢ $79 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 BUY Under 40¢ $1 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 BUY Under 40¢ $0 3d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 27¢ $106 3d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 55¢ $223 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 40¢ $118 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $155 4d
Spread: Germany (-2.5) SELL Germany 100¢ $506 4d
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 73¢ $223 4d
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 73¢ $148 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $203.49 · official $213.92 · 3500 history records