Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T09:14:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

ED
0xed10…d2e5
other · 90 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$1,880,253 +8%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$3,203,462 · open −$1,331,395
avoidriskycopy
✓ COPY-WORTHY ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Chart Positions 81 History 20 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,217
7 days+$5,666
14 days+$3,203,462
30 days+$3,203,462
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 85¢ $2,000,000 $3,402,000 +$1,402,000 (+70%)
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $1,182,839 $1,183,431 +$592 (+0%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $857,432 $858,157 +$725 (+0%)
Trump out as President by June 30? No 95¢ 99¢ $691,965 $722,476 +$30,511 (+4%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 50¢ 15¢ $2,000,000 $598,000 −$1,402,000 (-70%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? No 97¢ 99¢ $247,865 $253,072 +$5,207 (+2%)
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 100¢ $214,776 $220,238 +$5,462 (+3%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 88¢ 94¢ $168,047 $178,942 +$10,895 (+6%)
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30? No 97¢ 96¢ $103,186 $102,945 −$241 (-0%)
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026? No 98¢ 99¢ $83,388 $84,255 +$867 (+1%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 99¢ $74,829 $75,481 +$652 (+1%)
New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? No 90¢ 94¢ $71,399 $75,189 +$3,790 (+5%)
Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $46,219 $46,492 +$272 (+1%)
Nasdaq round-the-clock trading by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $39,444 $39,602 +$157 (+0%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? No 99¢ 99¢ $37,041 $36,961 −$80 (-0%)
Another Trump political opponent federally charged by May 31? No 100¢ 100¢ $35,909 $35,927 +$18 (+0%)
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? No 90¢ 94¢ $33,466 $35,035 +$1,569 (+5%)
Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $33,734 $34,122 +$389 (+1%)
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? No 89¢ 92¢ $28,847 $29,914 +$1,066 (+4%)
Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled? Yes 93¢ 94¢ $27,999 $28,520 +$522 (+2%)
Xi Jinping out by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $28,330 $28,509 +$178 (+1%)
New "Stranger Things" episode released by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $24,532 $24,693 +$161 (+1%)
Will Anthropic not IPO by June 30, 2026? Yes 98¢ 99¢ $23,150 $23,568 +$417 (+2%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 85¢ 90¢ $21,302 $22,625 +$1,323 (+6%)
Will Tim Walz resign by June 30? No 88¢ 99¢ $18,070 $20,386 +$2,316 (+13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30? Jun 10 $614 +$1,217 +198%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 10 $1,824,798 +$1,827 +0%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 09 $950 +$50 +5%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 08 $673 −$673 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Mai Jun 08 $750 −$750 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main Jun 08 $990 −$990 -100%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $686,169 +$444 +0%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Jun 07 $1,000 +$1,000 +100%
UFC Fight Night: Matt Schnell vs. Alessandro Costa (Catchweight, Preli Jun 07 $1,613 +$389 +24%
UFC Fight Night: Bruno Silva vs. Édgar Cháirez (Flyweight, Prelims) Jun 06 $970 +$1,062 +109%
UFC Fight Night: Priscila Cachoeira vs. Chelsea Chandler (Women's Bant Jun 06 $364 +$328 +90%
UFC Fight Night: Joanderson Brito vs. Jordan Leavitt (Featherweight, P Jun 06 $1,260 +$740 +59%
UFC Fight Night: Yuneisy Duben vs. Jeisla Chaves (Women's Flyweight, P Jun 06 $1,480 +$520 +35%
UFC Fight Night: Ariane Carnelossi vs. Ketlen Souza (Women's Strawweig Jun 06 $1,503 +$503 +34%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $8,238,870 +$54,425 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $224,369 +$710,815 +317%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May? Jun 02 $1,383 +$21,831 +1579%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? Jun 02 $7,764 +$110,396 +1422%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? Jun 02 $842,941 +$1,775,142 +211%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? Jun 02 $74,908 +$525,187 +701%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 47% −$1,366,620
crypto 32% +$54,430
world 14% +$2,491,668
economics 3% +$829
other 2% +$30,774
finance 0% +$657,578
tech 0% +$1,231
sports 0% +$2,178
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $7,992 1m
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $4,995 8m
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $9,990 9m
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $9,990 9m
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $999 14m
Another Trump political opponent federally charged by May 31? BUY No 100¢ $999 38m
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $4,995 43m
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,998 44m
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $9 46m
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $5,315 54m
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $6,324 55m
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $99,900 1h
Another Trump political opponent federally charged by May 31? BUY No 100¢ $14 1h
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $999 1h
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $999 1h
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $4,446 2h
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,998 2h
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $0 2h
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,998 2h
Will Anthropic not IPO by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $0 3h
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $2,997 3h
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $999 3h
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $3,297 3h
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $999 3h
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $999 3h
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,998 3h
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $2 4h
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $4,995 4h
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $3,996 4h
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +65%
net ROI/market (all)+197.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +25.3% +13.4% 79% 57% -9.3%
≤30d 20 +229.2% +197.9% 85% 65% +14.8%
≤90d 20 +229.2% +197.9% 85% 65% +14.8%
all 20 +229.2% +197.9% 85% 65% +14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover317.9 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +197.9% 65% +14.8%
10% +169.4% 65% +3.8%
15% ← realistic here +143.3% 50% -6.2%
20% +119.5% 50% -15.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,336,571.66 · official $8,336,571.67 (match) · 3500 history records