Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:16:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
ED 0xed0d…a476 other 58 markets active 1h ago coverage 613d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$74 (-0%) realized −$74 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate18%10W / 47L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$306per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$17now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 77% −$14
politics 14% −$13
other 6% −$7
sports 2% −$40
tech 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
world 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 14 -0.1% -9.6% 7% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 43 -6.8% -15.6% 16% 9% -12.2%
all 57 -5.3% -14.3% 18% 7% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.3% 7% -9.9%
10% -22.5% 7% -18.5%
15% -30.0% 7% -26.4%
20% -36.8% 7% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 73% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$3 · ×1.9 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

613d coverage
Net worth$17
Realized−$74
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses10 / 47
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)57 / 58
History coverage613d
Avg bet$306
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $17 $17 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $10 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $11 $0 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 10 $13 $0 -0%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 09 $20 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $11 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 04 $14 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $14 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on Jun 02 $26 $0 +1%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 30 $26 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $10 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 23 $10 $0 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? May 22 $13 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 19 $60 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 12 $60 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $65 $0 -0%
Will RCD Mallorca win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $6 +$4 +62%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 08 $58 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 07 $60 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $57 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $63 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 01 $61 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $64 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $59 $0 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Apr 27 $59 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 21 $63 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 21 $62 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 20 $62 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $63 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $61 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $61 $0 -0%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $9 −$9 -100%
Sabres vs. Rangers Apr 09 $10 +$7 +72%
Lightning vs. Sabres Apr 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Grizzlies Apr 07 $16 +$2 +10%
Senators vs. Panthers Apr 06 $18 −$18 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Jose Delano vs. Robert Ruchala (Featherweight, Prelim Apr 06 $12 −$12 -100%
Mavericks vs. Trail Blazers Apr 06 $39 −$39 -100%
Based FDV above $2B one day after launch? Apr 03 $109 −$1 -1%
Based FDV above $800M one day after launch? Apr 03 $45 $0 +1%
Nuggets vs. Suns Mar 27 $32 +$16 +52%
Jets vs. Rangers Mar 24 $17 +$20 +117%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Mar 05 $4 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap Mar 05 $82 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Feb 13 $86 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 04 $13,518 −$14 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 08 $2 $0 -2%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 18 $20 $0 -2%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jun 11 $10 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $9 1h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 2h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $11 5d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $11 5d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $13 6d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $13 6d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $10 7d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 7d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $11 10d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $11 11d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $14 12d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $14 12d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $10 13d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 13d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $14 13d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $14 14d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $11 15d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $11 15d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $12 17d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $12 17d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 18d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 18d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $17 21d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $14 23d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $14 23d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL No 100¢ $10 24d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY No 100¢ $10 24d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 100¢ $13 25d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 100¢ $13 25d
Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 99¢ $26 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.08 · official $17.08 (match) · 308 history records