Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:07:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
ED 0xed0d…fa8c world 72 markets active 3d ago coverage 124d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$19 (-11%) realized −$20 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate37%25W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$14
14 days−$14
30 days−$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 34% +$6
other 32% −$12
crypto 17% −$13
weather 7% +$1
politics 6% −$4
economics 2% +$2
finance 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +16.1% +5.1% 60% 60% -49.0%
≤30d 6 +44.4% +30.6% 67% 67% -42.9%
≤90d 40 +15.7% +4.7% 48% 45% -21.5%
all 67 -3.2% -12.4% 37% 34% -21.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 34% -21.1%
10% -20.8% 31% -28.7%
15% -28.4% 27% -35.6%
20% -35.5% 25% -41.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

124d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses25 / 42
Open positions5
Markets (closed)67 / 72
History coverage124d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 67 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 21¢ 24¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+17%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 57¢ 64¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+13%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 34¢ 34¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Yes 17¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-44%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 +$8 +165%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 10 $1 $0 +16%
Fed rate hike in 2026? Jun 10 $2 +$2 +99%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? May 19 $1 +$2 +186%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on April 24? May 08 $1 +$1 +61%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? May 08 $3 +$1 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on April 24? Apr 23 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 23 $1 +$1 +56%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 23 $1 −$1 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? Apr 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 18? Apr 23 $1 +$2 +155%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on April 10? Apr 09 $1 $0 -43%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 10? Apr 09 $1 $0 -10%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 08 $1 +$1 +96%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on April 8? Apr 08 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on March 29? Apr 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on April 8? Apr 08 $2 +$2 +110%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on April 9? Apr 07 $1 −$1 -96%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 07 $8 $0 +2%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 05 $3 +$3 +78%
DeepSeek V4 released by April 15? Apr 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on March 29? Mar 30 $1 +$2 +210%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Mar 29 $2 +$1 +54%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? Mar 27 $1 $0 +18%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Mar 27 $7 −$5 -65%
Will Ethereum hit $1,000 or $3,000 first? Mar 27 $1 $0 -9%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Will another country strike Iran by March 31? Mar 24 $1 +$1 +89%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Mar 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? Mar 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? Mar 23 $2 −$1 -64%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31? Mar 23 $1 −$1 -74%
Will Trump visit China by March 31? Mar 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump and Putin not meet? Mar 23 $1 $0 +39%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 23 $1 +$2 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Mar 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 23 $1 +$7 +733%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Mar 16 $2 −$1 -46%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Mar 16 $4 −$2 -39%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Mar 16 $5 −$2 -39%
US recession by end of 2026? Mar 14 $1 $0 +10%
Will Solana reach $100 in March? Mar 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Russia capture Rodynske by April 30? Mar 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? Mar 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 3d
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 4d
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 34¢ $3 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 57¢ $5 6d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 6d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 6d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL No 82¢ $1 6d
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL Yes 53¢ $4 6d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $5 6d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on April 24? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 54d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? SELL Yes 99¢ $2 54d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 26¢ $1 54d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $1 54d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 70¢ $1 54d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on April 24? BUY Yes 61¢ $1 54d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 18? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 60d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on April 10? SELL Yes $1 68d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 10? SELL Yes $1 68d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 10? BUY Yes $1 68d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on April 10? BUY Yes $1 68d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on April 8? SELL Yes $0 70d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on April 8? SELL Yes 91¢ $4 70d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on April 9? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 70d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on April 8? BUY Yes $1 70d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on April 8? BUY Yes 42¢ $2 70d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 70d
US forces enter Iran by April 30? SELL Yes 100¢ $6 72d
DeepSeek V4 released by April 15? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 75d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? BUY Yes $1 75d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.83 · official $19.84 (match) · 138 history records